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14 Oct, 9 tweets, 3 min read
What's new? Nothing. But therein lies the problem, the evidence suggests the UK government thought a small amount of movement on state aid, some shared principles, would move the dial on talks. Always looked unrealistic to this observer. Further movement needed.
There's no major disagreement on handling UK talks in the EU beyond usual backchat, fish will be difficult but seems achievable. We just wait on the PM making the decision to cut this deal or not. Unfortunately making timely difficult decisions is not a strength of his...
I think the UK government is stuck in indecision. Going for the deal means upsetting Brexit ultras / dropping parts of the Internal Market Bill. No-deal shows a PM who couldn't get a deal, damages manufacturing etc. Keep going and hope something turns up.
Ironically the longer the UK government goes without making a decision the harder it is getting, the more obvious there's no easy way out, the EU isn't suddenly going to give a deal the ERG likes. And there's no sign of preparing those about to be disappointed.
Also increasingly showing why the Internal Market Bill clauses were so poorly judged. Re-energised those who always disliked the Northern Ireland protocol, even though it holds deal or no-deal. Made government climb down harder. Risked US trade deal and UK reputation.
Agreed. All about UK movement on level playing field (but also EU funding the right structure), governance, and the Internal Market Bill.
So in another of those ground-breaking tweets which I know set me apart from the crowd, I still don't know if there will be a UK-EU deal.

By the way, anyone know what happened to my TED talk invitation?
A near 100% chance the PM takes on Brexit ultras and withdraws offending parts of the Internal Market Bill? Or the EU backs down on level playing field? Sure.

Mistaking the ability of negotiators to find solutions (easy) to political will to do so (hard).
Good to see @SamCoatesSky gets the PM's decision to come over an EU deal news.sky.com/story/brexit-p…

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
15 Oct
Trade deal or not, the Brexit dream is dying. Trade deal and we spent the coming years in a push-pull relationship with the EU over economic alignment. No-deal and we intensify the battles over the future of the UK.

It wasn't supposed to be like this.
The fundamental problems being those piloting Brexit assuming the EU would provide the access we wanted with few responsibilities, and failing to create any national consensus with business and devolved authorities.

They assumed they could do it even when advised otherwise.
At the basic level the UK will still have greater freedom outside the EU. But it will be far from the dream because the US and EU have demands over regulation in trade deals, and trans-national business supply chains use their regulations. Watch EU data adequacy in particular.
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
14 Oct
Has the EU really only just discovered that fishing is the UK's strongest card? Problem is fishing communities in both UK and EU are not overly keen on being traded off...
Here's a fuller (pessimistic) take from @tconnellyRTE on the state of UK-EU talks. rte.ie/news/brexit/20…
The UK version of EU-UK talks remains more optimistic than that in the EU. theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
13 Oct
Well the deal is there, just requiring UK to back down on level playing field, governance, internal market bill, the EU on fishing, and both to agree on a new form of dispute settlement for two parties who don't trust each other.

If you're thinking therefore not that easy...
Oh, and after backing down the PM has to repeat the trick of claiming victory, and the ERG have to be bought off again, and the French fishermen not kick-off, and and...
It is worth noting that some Brexit jacobins currently advocate ending talks with the EU, tearing up the Withdrawal Agreement, and essentially isolating the UK from the EU and ensuring no trade deal with the US. Will the PM be prepared to face them down? cityam.com/with-friends-l…
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
12 Oct
So much being written today about UK food and trade, so time for the thread. In short, factually:

- reasonable for the US to want us to accept their food
- reasonable (& broadly WTO compliant) for us to set conditions
- the lack of evidence, plus distractions, is troubling 1/
Start with the reason we're having a food and trade debate, easy to forget when distractions are thrown in around protectionism and developing countries. The US want as a price for a trade deal a guarantee their food can be sold in the UK (i.e. repeal any current bans). 2/
The US are behaving in trade talks just like the EU. As the bigger player, an insistence on their rules. A sign of our debased UK debate is that few make this equivalence, or indeed ask why the UK doesn't do similar to smaller countries? 3/
Read 18 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
12 Oct
Wholly inadequate, which is why business and civil society stakeholders have been pushing for more open processes around UK trade deals for over two years.

Starting at the beginning there is no opportunity to have a debate on a trade agreement before or during negotiation.
"Independently verified" - but not by a body that has any trade expertise.

"Full scrutiny" by Parliamentary committees - 10 days to read and digest ~1000 pages before the scrutiny process starts

"CRAG process" - 21 days to delay at most.
Not even close to best in class. Those affected get 21 days tops between receiving the detailed trade agreement and it being agreed. And as we've seen recently sometimes it takes even governments 9 months to understand a 50-page agreement.
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
11 Oct
Where "regressive" = unable to do a trade deal with the US. Who incidentally have stringent processes for food imports.

Basically the continued effort to define free trade, wrongly, as a trade deal with the US.
There need be no inconsistency between free trade and setting regulations as long as the latter is not discriminatory. Those who would claim otherwise should explain why they think the US setting UK food rules equals free trade. Take back control, remember?
Incidentally, and more tomorrow, it is not illegal under WTO rules to have regulations covering imports. But it might displease the US. So could we have an honest debate about that, rather than pretending government resistance to food rules is not about a US trade deal?
Read 4 tweets

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