Trade deal or not, the Brexit dream is dying. Trade deal and we spent the coming years in a push-pull relationship with the EU over economic alignment. No-deal and we intensify the battles over the future of the UK.
It wasn't supposed to be like this.
It wasn't supposed to be like this.
The fundamental problems being those piloting Brexit assuming the EU would provide the access we wanted with few responsibilities, and failing to create any national consensus with business and devolved authorities.
They assumed they could do it even when advised otherwise.
They assumed they could do it even when advised otherwise.
At the basic level the UK will still have greater freedom outside the EU. But it will be far from the dream because the US and EU have demands over regulation in trade deals, and trans-national business supply chains use their regulations. Watch EU data adequacy in particular.
So far Ireland has primarily defeated the Brexit dream. Through not joining the UK in leaving. Through focusing EU unity and obtaining US support. And because as a more successful economy than the UK it provides a realistic model for Scotland.
Reality for the UK is we can be outside the EU but not outside Europe and the EU's regulatory reach. And no other alliance such as the utopian CANZUK can compete because other countries know the power of geography and business supply chains. And we can't rely on the US.
The major question for the UK now is how long we continue to fight geography and modern trade, even if politically convenient in England, until realising we have to deal with Europe, and therefore the EU. It could start in weeks, if a deal, or years, if not.
And the Brexit dreamers are going to have to redefine their dream. In 2015 they would have settled for what they now dismiss as vassalage. They got greedy. They ignored the teachings of the individual many claim as their hero when she said "You can't buck the market".
Remain lost in 2016 and again in 2019. Brexit, as pursued, is going to lose in 2020 or soon after. And we'll all lose if we can't adjust to those realities and find a new path out of here. /end
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