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15 Oct, 10 tweets, 3 min read
Is this even constitutional? The West has lost the plot.
Another funny Covid-19 news today, the day that Xi & Carrie talk about the Greater Bay Area (HK, Macao, Shenzhen) & no announcement of integration & travel bubble, and wait for it, Hong Kong announces a travel bubble with: SINGAPORE! Singapore before Shenzhen or Macao! 1 country!
Over the summer, the UK & Europe didn't do much containing & controlling & a lot of people just did whatever they wanted like life was normal. Got friends going to Spain, Italy etc posting pics mass gathering w/o masks. No enforcement of quarantine. Now they control private homes
My friend returned from Spain, an outbreak there, to London & supposedly to quarantine but no process (or effort) to do it by the government & so now they're like from HERO TO ZERO.

I thought this already happened & lessons learned. Guess not. De ja vu!
The curfew thing is interesting too. Like if you shut bars & restos etc at 9pm, then people don't have reasons to leave the house so need for this curfew.

I don't understand this hero to zero approach. Image
Thank you Boris Johnson & Sadiq Khan for your great leadership to cheapen GBP!!! London real estate, hmm, gonna get cheaper I suppose w/ this move. Image
Check this out: well, we know the dollar strengthens because of risk-off of the budget fiasco of Pelosi rejecting Trump+Mnuchin 1.8trn counter offer. Fine.

But look at the winners & losers. Lots of idiosyncratic factors.

Look at my fav IDR! Doing well vs USD thanks to reforms👏🏻 Image
Lots of US data tonight - initial jobless claims most key obvs as it's October data & people like it as it's a bit more leading than other lagging indicators. Empire also out too! Tomorrow is retail sales & expectations are high! Will US data boost the USD or temper it vs majors? ImageImage
Man, can I just say that I love how IDR is doing so well amidst all this dollar strength!!!

Told u, the whole investment reform thing is good for Indonesia! Now I wish the Indonesian gov would do better at PR than they do now & speak better investors' (& media) language. PR key. Image
That's enough social media for today - leaving work! It's nice to stare down into Kowloon from the 72nd floor - kind of feeling like I'm watching over the city. As I don't carry my phone, will find out about claims/markets after dinner! Enjoy Mr. Markets! Volatility is ur friend!

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More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh Profile picture
15 Oct
The best things about going to a physical bookstore vs online is that you can see the whole collection, from topic to topic, versus online an algo tells you what you'd like. As in, there's a sense of discovery & freedom in visiting a physical bookstore & u meet other bookworms.
When I was a child, I loved visiting my local public library & when that got too small I would take the bus downtown to visit the big library with all those books. You don't even have to pay! At UCLA, Borders on Westwood was a fav. I'd spend my Saturdays there, reading all sorts.
I'd read the architecture, economic & social affairs magazines & then peruse the classics in sociology, psychology, economics & venture to other topics. I attended many events at that Borders, including meeting Frank McCourt, my fav, & meet other people that live in Westwood area
Read 13 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
13 Oct
The best way to see America's future is to look at increasingly stressed, depressed, and lonely Americans. They used to be fit, happy, and confident. Fast forward to 2020, they're more angry, less healthy & increasingly irrational.

The center has collapsed & fringe rising. Why?
Hard to point to the reason why but I reckon it has to do with the distribution of wealth & erosion of fundamental American values in the past several decades -the destruction of small businesses, rise of large corporations, esp tech & rise of costs of living & limited mobility.
Chart below is nominal GDP (look at California and how it dwarfs everyone else). We have four states > 1trn in nominal GDP and 8> 0.5trn in GDP. Coastal = tend to be benefiting from US globalization, "fly-over" states less.

Let's look at this taking into account population.
Read 33 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
13 Oct
Good morning! Hong Kong got T8, basically everything shuts down except for essentials & so I waited for the minibus that never came & took a cab to work (didn't know it was T8). Nice to be at the office w/ it so empty. HK markets closed at least in the AM

Let's talk economics!🤗
This week is a pretty economic week for Asia & the US ( obvs frantic regarding fiscal & politics). In Asia, today we have Bank Indonesia expected to hold.

Needs to do more! With the IDR weak, & it needs to show its independence. Gov needs to remove its effort to change mandate.
If you juxtapose BI (Indonesia) vs RBI (India), then u can see that both are emerging markets but RBI is doing a much better job at PR than BI (although much of it is not BI's fault but the gov itself).

Indonesia has much less gov debt, lower CPI, yet pays more for its debt.
Read 18 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
12 Oct
Thinking about aging (not just my own but the overall trend in Asia & world) & started to look into statistics of how we die, which incidentally is the title of one of my favorite books.

Death is interesting b/c it teaches us about life.

In the US, 2.8 millions die per year.
Just like in nature, a tree falls to decay, which becomes nutrient of life, to make space for other trees, our lives end otherwise it will be pretty crowded. How we live tells a bit about how we die. That's 0.86% of population that die per year (births higher so population rises)
Data is from 2017.

23% of Americans die of heart disease or 647k people per year. I suppose that has to do w/ our diet & lifestyle & the heart wears out as more mileage is added on.

Take care of the heart when u're young. 💗
Read 15 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
8 Oct
Didn't watch the VP debate because already up my mind (voted & just need to fax to SD). Anyway, in case you are wondering, the US is not doing that terrible economically, in fact one of the best: ISM manufacturing & services are expanding very robustly.
Here is another data point just to sober you up vs the emotional rants on Twitter: US economic surprise index & it has been onward & upward!
Everyone talks about how awesome China is doing but if you look at data like the PMI, the US is exceeding China in expansion in both services and manufacturing.

And it's especially doing well vs the Eurozone. Don't believe me, look at the below chart.
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
8 Oct
Indonesia is at it again, tinkering at the margin wanting “co-ordinated” independence, to have a direct say in Bank Indonesia’s policymaking. “BI’s function is just not monetary affairs but they should have a role [in] the economic growth and job creation,” Achmad said.
There is a Turkish proverb that says, "It's never too late to turn back on the wrong road."

What is the role of the government? Fiscal policy & that entails expenditure & revenue generation. Both of which have had a dismal performance. Labor productivity has fallen as FDI falls.
*Manufacturing FDI. Indonesia is one of the few Asian economies with expanding working age population but falling manufacturing FDI inflows and falling labor productivity.

Is it BI's fault? No. It's the government's fault. Now they want a quick fix by tinkering w/ monetary.
Read 14 tweets

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