Thread by @JakeSherman

Playbook this AM: Is Covid relief ever going to happen?

Washington’s Most Eager Man @stevenmnuchin1 said yesterday that getting a Covid deal before the election is going to be tough.

I agree

There are lots of real-world implications that @JStein_WaPo does a good job laying out

@stevenmnuchin1 @JStein_WaPo BUT THERE’S SOMETHING that’s not getting nearly enough attention: It seems completely plausible that Covid relief not only will be delayed for now, but could be delayed for several months, and could even slip into late in the first quarter of 2021.

@stevenmnuchin1 @JStein_WaPo LET’S explore that. FOR ARGUMENT’S SAKE, let’s assume the Democrats definitely keep control of the House -- as everyone is predicting.

Let’s just acknowledge the W.H. doesnt want a lame-duck covid bill. They often don’t know what they want

@stevenmnuchin1 @JStein_WaPo IF THE ELECTION RESULTS come in well after Nov. 4, we assume that any legislating will be put on hold. This would also throw leadership elections into flux, and generally complicate the legislative landscape between Nov. 4 and January.

@stevenmnuchin1 @JStein_WaPo BUT THERE ARE A HOST OF OTHER SCENARIOS worth digging into. Remember, this is in the LAME DUCK. We’ll get to 2021 in a minute.

-- BIDEN WINS, DS WIN SEN: This is the blue wave everyone is talking ab -- and that could lead to stagnation in lame duck. 1 has to assume that Rs -- led @senatemajldr -- will be pushing for liability& a pared-back S/L piece. Ds may just filibuster in hopes of a better deal in 21

@senatemajldr -- BIDEN, RS KEEP SENATE: If anything could produce a deal, this could be it -- even this seems iffy. Rs would have a smaller # in 2021, so they’d be incentivized to deal in LD w TRUMP. Ds could just filibuster & hope BIDEN wld do better w Rs in 21. Why would @SpeakerPelosi deal

@senatemajldr @SpeakerPelosi -- TRUMP WINS, REPUBLICANS KEEP THE SENATE: Polls tell us this is not likely. But this status quo scenario could produce a lame-duck deal.

@senatemajldr @SpeakerPelosi -- TRUMP WINS, DS TAKE SENE: Speaking of unlikely, this could lead to an energized TRUMP working w @SenSchumer and @senatemajldr to get the economy moving again. But then again, why would SCHUMER let MCCONNELL cut a deal in the lame duck if he were headed to the maj leader role?

@senatemajldr @SpeakerPelosi @SenSchumer OK, NOW LET’S THINK ABOUT FULL DEMOCRATIC CONTROL in 2021. If Dems control the Senate and the White House, there’s a binary calculus to consider: Will Republicans help Democrats pass Covid relief, or not?

@senatemajldr @SpeakerPelosi @SenSchumer -- IF YES, there could be a deal. Sens. MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska), RUBIO (R-Fla.), YOUNG (R-Ind.), ROY BLUNT (R-Mo.), ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio) and PAT TOOMEY (R-Pa.) are all Republicans who are either up for reelection or retiring who could be part of a governing coalition for Ds in 2021

@senatemajldr @SpeakerPelosi @SenSchumer -- IF REPUBLICANS DON’T PARTICIPATE -- think 2009 and the House GOP’s calculus after the financial crisis -- then how will BIDEN and Democrats get something through?

@senatemajldr @SpeakerPelosi @SenSchumer THE ONLY ANSWER HERE is they’d have to get rid of the filibuster. Maybe this -- Covid relief -- is the issue that forces SCHUMER to do that. And, in that scenario, it could still take a while to get money out the door.

@senatemajldr @SpeakerPelosi @SenSchumer One other caveat here: Dems could use reconciliation. But that’s tricky — and limiting