I often see comments saying: "let #COVID19 spread widely so we can reach herd immunity".
**To those people**: NEVER, in the history of infectious diseases, has there been a situation where we reached herd immunity through "natural infections". It is NONSENSE.
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#Epitwitter
**To those people**: NEVER, in the history of infectious diseases, has there been a situation where we reached herd immunity through "natural infections". It is NONSENSE.
1/9
#Epitwitter
Epidemiology and public health experts discuss herd immunity in the context of VACCINES (e.g., irradicating smallpox). If we let #COVID19 rip through the population, we would require approximately 70% of people to be infected.
Let me explain why that is problematic:
2/9
Let me explain why that is problematic:
2/9
Who is at risk of more severe disease or outcomes?
1) Adults 60+ years:
- A quarter (1 in 4 people) of Canada's population is 60 years or older
- More than 95% of 9500 COVID-related deaths are in people 60+ years
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1) Adults 60+ years:
- A quarter (1 in 4 people) of Canada's population is 60 years or older
- More than 95% of 9500 COVID-related deaths are in people 60+ years
3/9
Who is at risk of more severe disease or outcomes?
2) people with a history of:
- lung disease, 2% of the population
- heart disease, 6% of pop'n
- hypertension (high blood pressure), 15% of pop'n
- diabetes, 8% of pop'n
- kidney disease, 5% of pop'n
- stroke, 2% of pop'n
4/9
2) people with a history of:
- lung disease, 2% of the population
- heart disease, 6% of pop'n
- hypertension (high blood pressure), 15% of pop'n
- diabetes, 8% of pop'n
- kidney disease, 5% of pop'n
- stroke, 2% of pop'n
4/9
Who is at risk of more severe disease or outcomes?
3) People with an immunocompromised system, including:
- with an underlying medical condition (e.g., cancer) or taking medications that lower the immune system (e.g., chemotherapy)
MOST KNOW A PERSON THAT HAD OR HAS CANCER
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3) People with an immunocompromised system, including:
- with an underlying medical condition (e.g., cancer) or taking medications that lower the immune system (e.g., chemotherapy)
MOST KNOW A PERSON THAT HAD OR HAS CANCER
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Who is at risk of more severe disease or outcomes?
4) People living with obesity (BMI of 40 or higher), which represents 22% of the Canadian population
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4) People living with obesity (BMI of 40 or higher), which represents 22% of the Canadian population
6/9
SO...
For those saying "let 'er rip," are you suggesting:
1) **SOMEHOW** isolate subgroups at risk (~35%+ of the population) AND their family members?
Problematic: We still will not reach herd immunity
7/9
For those saying "let 'er rip," are you suggesting:
1) **SOMEHOW** isolate subgroups at risk (~35%+ of the population) AND their family members?
Problematic: We still will not reach herd immunity
7/9
2) Let those people get infected and suffer?
Problematic: We would see more than 200,000 deaths and more than 2.5 MILLION hospitalizations. Essentially, we would have a broken healthcare system and a broken economy. Nearly every household's income would be affected.
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Problematic: We would see more than 200,000 deaths and more than 2.5 MILLION hospitalizations. Essentially, we would have a broken healthcare system and a broken economy. Nearly every household's income would be affected.
8/9
Not to mention the health and economic suffering we would see because of the long-term side effects of having been infected (i.e., long COVID).
So, letting the virus spread uncontrolled would lead to WORSE human tragedies and WORSE economic outcomes in the long-run.
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So, letting the virus spread uncontrolled would lead to WORSE human tragedies and WORSE economic outcomes in the long-run.
9/9
Addendum: I encourage everyone to read the John Snow Memorandum here: johnsnowmemo.com
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