Thread by @BonicMichael

@GrecianFormula @YouTube That was a great, jam-packed 1-hour+ of analysis.

Rachel Minyoung Lee:

What does North Korea want?

A) The withdrawal of the US “hostile policy” is the precondition for resuming denuclearization talks.

1) A lasting and durable peace mechanism [wording straight from the

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 2/Singapore Joint Declaration]
2) Sanctions relief
3) The removal of North Korea from the US annual human rights report

Rachel Minyoung Lee: “Kim Yo-jong in her press statement in July said North Korea’s denuclearization steps & irreversible important measures from the US must

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 3/"must run in parallel. So the term “irreversible” is the key word, and it shows that North Korea wants security assurances that cannot be overturned or ignored by changes in US administrations. So would an end of the war declaration cut it for North Korea now? The answer is

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 4/"no...But what North Korea wants, ultimately, is something irreversible, like the normalization of diplomatic ties withe the US and the removal of [the] US nuclear threat, meaning the withdrawal of the USFK, and the nuclear weapons North Korea claims the US keeps in South

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 5/"Korea…North Korea’s foreign policy, including it’s posture on the US and South Korea, will become clearer during or after the 8th Party Congress on or shortly after January 1-2021.”

Frank Aum:

Pragmatic Approach to Peace
1) Prioritize Peace in parallel w/ denuclearization

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 6/"...So today more and more experts, recognizing that complete denuclearization in the near-term, or even the medium term, is a pipe dream, but an interim deal, that freezes North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile activities can largely be achieved and verified and would

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 7/"have an immediate security payoff. And then [by] making tangible progress in addressing each side’s security concerns, this could help provide the foundation, the trust and the momentum for additional gains down the road…

Credible or not, Kim Jong-un pledged to work towards

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 8/"complete denuclearization [of] the Korean Peninsula in Singapore, and even told reporters in Hanoi, that: “If I’m not willing to denuclearize, I wouldn’t be here right now.” But Washington has to accept the reality that denuclearization is gonna take years of negotiations,

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 9/"numerous setbacks, and sustained confidence-building measures. The key challenge is to have the process persist through changes in the administration and periodic breakdowns.”

So, factoring in what Kim Yo-jong said, denuclearization has to be parallel with an “irreversible”

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 10/measure. Note: Kim promised to "work towards denuclearization" - key word is "TOWARDS". This statement doesn't mean/imply that 100% total denuclearization is Kim's goal. A climber is climbing TOWARDS the summit of a mountain. Obstacles are in the way. He might get half-way

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 11/there and that's as far as it gets. I offer that "work towards denuclearization" includes Kim deciding in a deal with Trump to permanently cap DPRK's nuclear & ICBM/SLBM programs. Non-professional, "armchair analyst" that I am, I'd recommend abandoning CVID/FFVD and taking a

@GrecianFormula @YouTube totally new approach: MEET DPRK IN THE MIDDLE. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. If the US can abandon FFVD (the empty glass), I'll wager that DPRK will abandon the full glass (maximizing it's nuclear capabilities) [water level = extent of DPRK's nuclear capability]. Twitter's been deleting

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 13/my tweets, don't know why. B/c I advocate for the US accepting a nuclear DPRK? We know that Choe Son-hui said: "DPRK's nuclear weapons are non-negotiable, unless the US is willing to co-exist with the nuclear DPRK, b/c that is the only way to have stability, peace and security

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 14/in Northeast Asia."

So basically, cut thru all the BS. Forget about some grand 100% denuclearization scenario that is completed in 15 years. Agree now, today, to accept a nuclear DPRK. Everyone knows DPRK isn't suicidal, that their survival depends on their nuclear deterrence

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 15/which is intended for self-defense/protection and to deter potential adversaries from attacking the "shrimp among whales". If Washington cannot see it from DPRK's perspective and insists on FFVD, then they're going to continue towards the full glass. So this can all change

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 16/by splitting the difference, meeting DPRK half-way. This will render DPRK's nuclear weapons as being "not a threat to the US" if Trump and Kim can sign a deal to this effect. There's no way this will happen in a Democrat Administration. So Trump, the X-Factor, represents a

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 17/once in a lifetime opportunity. Then also the Peace Treaty needs a 2/3 Senate approval, which makes it that much more difficult. Bottom line, DPRK's nuclear deterrence is the ONLY security guarantee they really have. US has to acknowledge reality. The best way to move forward

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 18/(imo) is for Trump and Kim Jong-un to sign a deal where DPRK agrees to:
1) Let USFK stay in South Korea and the Mutual Defense Treaty to remain
a) Conditional on USFK permanently terminating joint military exercises targeting DPRK
2) Permanently cap/freeze/terminate it's

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 19/nuclear/ICBM/SLBM programs
a) Conditional on the US formally accepting DPRK as a nuclear state
3) Abide by all non-proliferation rules and arms control agreements and sign non-adversarial joint statements that DPRK promises to abide peacefully w/ US & allies, ROK, Japan etc.

@GrecianFormula @YouTube 20/These are the main elements and they are w/in reach. I think it is DPRK's ultimate diplomatic goal for the US to accept it as a nuclear state. This ISN'T the Peace Treaty, yet it is substantive and yields IMMEDIATE RESULTS (could be done next year).
@realDonaldTrump
@POTUS

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 21/Lastly here's something to ponder: DPRK might want Peace as much as, make that MORE THAN, the US. The hawkish military industrial complex/"war machine" doesn't want Peace! Look at the resistance DPRK is up against! Try treating DPRK leadership - KJU, Kim Yo-jong, Choe Son-hui

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 22/with RESPECT. They are people just like us who want peacetime to come to the Korean Peninsula, yet they cannot give up all their nukes to do so. In an alternative universe there'd have been a Peace Treaty already where the international community has accepted a nuclear DPRK.

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 23/We're in the wrong universe.

Ponder this: Washington, pick your battles.

I) Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons b/c they have openly stated they'll wipe Israel off the map.

II) DPRK is the exception to the rule. They explain they'll never attack first, that their

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 24/nukes are for self-defense/protection and to deter potential adversaries. They are ultra-rational, non-suicidal, and ONLY WANT TO SURVIVE. And if the US hadn't abrogated Paragraph 13(d) way back in 1956-57 and ship nukes to South Korea to begin with, DPRK would never have gone

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 25/down the nuclear road! Step #1 is OWN YOUR ACTIONS. Washington's fingerprints are all over DPRK's nuclear program. Yet ROK generals are saying "It's not our fault DPRK has nukes." Oh yes it is. Abrogation of Paragraph 13(d).

So the US can easily say: "We cannot allow Iran

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 26/@realDonaldTrump
@POTUS
to ever have nukes. They are the leading state sponsor of terrorism and have said they'd remove Israel from the map. On the other hand North Korea is using its nukes for self-defense and deterrence. If we can get them to permanently cap/freeze/end

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 27/their nuclear & ICBM programs and allow USFK to stay in South Korea, that's good for us. For once we'll be meeting them half-way. It's called finding the right balance, splitting the difference. We don't want them to maximize their nuclear capability. They're not going to ever

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 28/give up all their nukes. So if Kim Jong-un wants to meet me half-way, if they'll cease from all further development of their nuclear & ICBM programs, we will formally accept DPRK as a nuclear state. We should actually invite them back into the NPT, but as a nuclear state.

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 29/We don't get the empty glass. They don't get the full glass. But I don't think they really want the full glass. They're only doing that b/c they don't know what the future brings. Who knows, under a Democratic administration the military industrial complex might want to attack

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 30/them. They know this! It's a tough job leading a country. But I think, because of our great relationship, I might be able to get Kim Jong-un to agree to this deal. It's a now or never deal, they'll never get anything as good as this, ever. But I think, once there is a Peace

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 31/Treaty signed, the US and North Korea can become friends. Just like the US and Japan became friends and allies after WW2. This first step is the hardest step. The only thing that truly gives them security is their nuclear weapons. They're going to keep developing them unless

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 32/we decide to accept them as a nuclear state. So we can try this with North Korea, while we make clear that Iran, which cannot be trusted, will not be allowed to have nuclear weapons. We brought nuclear weapons into the Korean Peninsula to begin with. We nuclearized the Korean

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 33/Peninsula! It's time for us to own that. We did what we had to do, then. It was to deter China. But you can see how they thought (and I don't blame them, how can anyone?) they had to develop nukes themselves b/c how could they know that we wouldn't use them against them? They

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 34/couldn't! No one util now has ever considered accepting North Korea as a nuclear state. But they already are. So if we acknowledge this, and they stop developing their programs, it's good for us, it's good for them - they don't another conflict, they want peace - it's good for

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 35/world. Such a deal as this will be what everyone wants. It will lead to normalization of diplomatic relations b/t our countries, the lifting of sanctions and for their economy to grow."

I see this as a real solution that DPRK would agree to. DPRK will never give up all their

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS 36/nukes, but whether they'll NEGOTIATE THEM DOWN - to limiting themselves to just what they presently have if they're willing to cap/freeze their programs - or not we won't know unless WE ASK THEM. ✌️

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @threader_app compile

@GrecianFormula @YouTube @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @threadreaderapp unroll