Thread by @Redistrict

Just in: final FL voter reg. data. Since this March's primary, here are each party's net gains:

GOP: +344,465
Dem: +197,821
NPA/Other: +197,818

Compare to the same period in '16:

GOP: +274,207
Dem: +307,961
NPA/Other: +220,857

Trump's '16 FL margin: 112,911 votes

For reference, here's the story I wrote for @NBCNews a few weeks ago putting the GOP's recent registration success in FL/NC/PA in context: nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…

Here's the final Nov. 2020 FL voter breakdown by party and race (14,441,869 registrants):

37% Dem
36% GOP
27% NPA/Other

61.5% White
17.3% Hispanic
13.4% Black
7.8% Other

Compare to Nov. 2016:

38% Dem
35% GOP
27% NPA/Other

64.2% White
15.7% Hispanic
13.4% Black
6.7% Other

So a few takeaways:

1) Yes, FL Rs made inroads b/c Trump-voting registered Ds have formally switched to R *and* Rs have out-hustled Ds this year on new registrations

2) But FL's electorate has also gotten 2.7% less white since '16, and many young/non-whites registering as NPA

Another thing I've always thought: the Clinton FL ground effort was actually really impressive in '16 - and without it, she would've lost by much more.

Meanwhile, Trump ran virtually no Spanish language effort in '16, and this time his FL Hispanic outreach is much more robust.

Still, would I rather be a Dem w/ a four point FL polling lead heading into the final 20 days, or a GOP president w/ a favorable recent FL voter registration trend?

I'd rather be the Dem.