Brief thread: here's why I don't put a ton of stock into the *overall* pro-R registration trend in FL from '16 to '20. Take the 33 least populous of FL's 67 counties, which are mostly rural and located in the north/panhandle (aka the Deep South)...
In November 2016, these 33 counties collectively had a narrow 42%-40% GOP voter registration advantage. But here's how they *voted:*
Trump: 369,045 (67%)
Clinton: 170,871 (31%)
Btw, Trump's statewide margin was 112,911 votes.
Trump: 369,045 (67%)
Clinton: 170,871 (31%)
Btw, Trump's statewide margin was 112,911 votes.
Fast forward to 2020: the final data shows the GOP voter registration advantage in these 33 counties has grown to 48%-32%.
These aren't new Trump voters. These are existing Trump voters formalizing their party change from D to R.
These aren't new Trump voters. These are existing Trump voters formalizing their party change from D to R.
In FL's other 34 counties (where 94% of FL's voters live), Democrats' narrow reg. edge has remained pretty stable, ticking down from 38%-35% to 37%-35%.
And Dems have seen modest encouraging growth in FL's suburbs, including counties like Seminole, Osceola, Duval, Orange, etc.
And Dems have seen modest encouraging growth in FL's suburbs, including counties like Seminole, Osceola, Duval, Orange, etc.
Bottom line: Rs can rightfully take pride in their recent net registration gains (March-Nov. '20), which far outpace the breakdown over the comparable period in '16.
But the *overall* '16-'20 pro-R shift isn't indicative of a sea change in vote intention.
But the *overall* '16-'20 pro-R shift isn't indicative of a sea change in vote intention.
https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1316886047951900673?s=20
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
