At a rough guess EU leaders have become bored and irritated by optimistic London pronouncements about a deal not backed up by a willingness to make significant movements on substance, indeed with the internal market bill, backsliding. theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
Not perhaps the EU's finest negotiating moment either, for while we know fish is a domestic sensitivity the UK maintaining status quo on waters always was a non-starter. But removing the word intensive about future talks appears to have had an effect. thetimes.co.uk/article/back-d…
But as before, still mainly for the UK to show we can accept the deal on offer, and drop the internal market bill threats, before the last minute fish haggle. Over to the PM to make the decision...
One issue mentioned to me by a few seasoned negotiators is that they feel neither the UK or EU has done enough work preparing domestic stakeholders for the compromises a deal will require. Obviously that sort of approach is in any case anathema on the UK side.
Still suspect the most underestimated issue for the UK in EU talks is that the Northern Ireland protocol will have to be implemented even in a deal, and that means checks GB-NI both ways (though minimised) as well as state aid subject to ECJ, contrary to the PM's promises.
Remembering there are now Conservative MPs who believe the best approach for the UK is to leave talks and disown the Withdrawal Agreement, the PM has to go against them for a deal. Of course he can, but that has in the past been career limiting for a tory leader...
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