Some comments on the VIC path to getting its epidemic under control. A 🧵
Victoria hit over 700 cases a day, and now has gotten into single digits per day.
Victoria hit over 700 cases a day, and now has gotten into single digits per day.
When cases first started doubling each week, there were a few relatively mild restrictions put in. I believed at the time it was an appropriate scale of response. Many felt it was an over-response.
Cases kept growing with a similar rate. More restrictions were put in, and then finally when cases continued to grow, they put in place a fairly strict lockdown (about this time we hit 700 a day).
Cases started falling quite rapidly after that. The last week or so it's not fallen so quickly, and anxiety was growing. It's started dropping again, and while we aren't out of the woods yet, it's looking hopeful.
Lessons that I hope are learned:
1) Err on the side of over-reacting. Had they gone straight to the lockdowns when cases were less than 100, it would have seemed an over-reaction, but the lockdown time needed to go 100->single digits is a lot less than to go from 700.
1) Err on the side of over-reacting. Had they gone straight to the lockdowns when cases were less than 100, it would have seemed an over-reaction, but the lockdown time needed to go 100->single digits is a lot less than to go from 700.
2) Underprivileged communities are the highest risk for sustained spread. It is essential that people have access to continued pay if they have to isolate, and that they all know it. People not being willing to get tested for fear of losing their income is a serious risk.
3) We need high quality facemasks in healthcare settings. If just a small fraction of the population is infected, asymptomatic people will come in for broken legs, or car accidents... Close physical contact in hospitals spreads infection and the recipients are often high risk.
4) Protecting the elderly is harder than simply saying "protect the elderly." Everyone knew the aged-care facilities were high risk, and yet, it was very difficult to keep it out, and once it got in, even harder to prevent it spreading.
Some residents need help to shower or dress, so contacts are close. Infection control measures like gowns and masks are much less effective when people need to be physically lifted or require other assistance.
5) The sacrifices made by people in Victoria should be appreciated by other Australians. Without that effort, many infections would have reached other states/territory, and overwhelmed their test & trace response.
The impact on the health and the economy of the rest of Australia Victoria's control so far is significant. As the treasurer is quick to point out, the economy has grown outside of VIC. I seriously doubt the growth would be anything like that if the had infection spread.
The federal government should support those people who have been harmed by the lockdown policies. The reality is that many people have lost a massive amount. All of Australia has benefited from their loss, so all of Australia should help them.
Life is very much back to normal in most of Australia. If you look at Europe and North/South America, you can see what Australia would have faced if the epidemic got out of hand.
I am hopeful that with summer coming, people will focus on opportunities to interact outdoors, that people will seek out testing if symptomatic, and if so, I think we will be able to suppress the virus and deal with future flareups without needing to go through this again.
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