Thread by @AntonEberhard

1/ Energy security is 1 of 4 priorities in President @CyrilRamaphosa’s Reconstruction and Recovery Plan. Makes sense. South Africa cannot power a post-COVID economic recovery unless it has an adequate & reliable power supply. Here’s my thread on the + & -
gov.za/sites/default/…

2/ Positives in @CyrilRamaphosa’s plan
Energy security is prioritized
Key intervention areas are recognized:
a) fast track procurement of new power as per IRP elec plan
b) ease licensing for self generation
c) restructure Eskom to enable competition
d) no nuclear distraction

3/ Negatives in @CyrilRamaphosa’s energy security plan
a) silly mistakes around dates for new power coming on line (will embarrass president next year)
b) insufficient detail to hold ministers to account
Accuracy & details matter in strategies if we’re to see postCOVID recovery

4/ There’s no way for 2000MW emergency power procurement to come online by June 2021
Please correct this expectation @PresidencyZA
Also RMIPP programme design is geared to fossil fuels and will result in expensive power, late
Need to focus instead on least-cost IRP options

5/ There’s no way for 11,800MW IRP power to come on line by 2022
Please correct this expectation @PresidencyZA
3m for preparing bids
2m for evaluating & awarding
6-12m for contracts & financial close
12-18m for solar PV construction
18-24m for wind construction
gas much longer

6/ Freeing up self power gen is NB in South Africa but regulatory reform proposals need to be precise. Energy Minister @GwedeMantashe1 says it’s allowed but omits that license exemption only if off-grid. Mines and large industries want to invest in solar PV but remain grid tied

7/ If SA is serious about economic recovery we need to make it easier for electricity consumers to invest in their own power solutions. Energy Minister @GwedeMantashe1 needs to amend Schedule2 of Electricity Regulation Act to exempt licences for self generators EVEN IF GRID TIED

8/ South Africa has an unusually dirigiste power planning and investment & regulatory framework. Energy Minister @GwedeMantashe1 needs to publish a letter to the regulator NERSA permitting deviation from the IRP plan and allowing it to licence self generators even if grid tied

9/ Electricity consumers want freedom to generate their own power, feed back to the grid and sell to 3rd parties. South Africa is short of power. The energy minister @GwedeMantashe1 needs to amend schedule 2 of the Electricity Regulation Act to exempt licence requirements <40MW

10/ South Africa is so far behind the rest of the world, including our BRICS partners, in freeing up our electricity market.
No one would now argue for a Telkom monopoly in telephony, internet, broadband, fibre.....
@Eskom_SA can no longer be a monopoly

11/ Three examples of how current regulations frustrate investment in power (there are many more)
A. Large mining company wants to invest in low cost solar PV to off-set high Eskom supply costs, wants to remain grid-tied, but NERSA won’t grant licence because no provision in IRP

12/ Another e.g.
Large global tech company has electricity intensive data centers in a South African metro & has commitment to be 100% renewable energy supplied by 2025. They want to contract with solar & wind IPPs but they can’t get licences and grid wheeling charges uneconomic

13/ Another e.g.
South African household has rooftop solar PV + batteries. Against industry advice vis a vis bureaucratic barriers, opts for feedback but municipality pays half supply tariff & annually cancels out any surplus fed back, i.e. requiring household to be net consumer

14/ It’s obvious that a huge pipeline of investment could be freed if regulations allowed electricity consumers to generate their own solutions. And South Africa could move swiftly to energy security. It’s not difficult. Energy Minister @GwedeMantashe1 has the power

15/ Two more comments on President @CyrilRamaphosa’s energy security proposals in the Reconstruction and Recovery Plan
Deadlines need to be set for the unbundling & establishment of a separate state-owned transmission system and market operator (ITSMO) to facilitate competition

16/ Last comment on President @CyrilRamaphosa’s Reconstruction and Recovery Plan.
Despite sound advice, no concrete proposals have yet been adopted for @Eskom_SA debt relief and refinancing. South Africa’s government can’t keep kicking that massive can down the road....

17/ OK, not quite the last comment on the energy component of President @CyrilRamaphosa’s post COVID recovery plan. We could say more about the energy ministry’s fixation on gas, or the need for more detail on a just energy transition. Another time