, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1/ South Africa’s electricity planning continues to be paralyzed by vested interests. All planning models of the past decade, with the objective function of a least-cost, RELIABLE power system have never selected nuclear, but some still push it regardless dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/20…
2/ Many who criticize Integrated Resource Planning Models don’t understand how they work. IRP models assess every hour of demand and supply over a year and select the optimal mix of supply options which result in adequate and reliable electricity supply at the least cost
3/ The objective function of IRP electricity planning models is the least cost supply mix to meet a defined reliability standard. Additional boundary conditions can be set such as meeting minimal environmental standards, and maximisation of local manufacturing and job creation
4/ The obvious way of cutting thru vested interests is to agree on objectives for the electricity sector: an adequate, reliable electricity supply at competitive prices to support economic and social development. We can add environmental, manufacturing, jobs & empowerment goals
5/ So those who argue that we need a ‘balanced energy supply’ are fudging policy choices & providing cover for vested interests. Policy-making involves choices against agreed goals. We can quickly agree on those (see above) and focus on planning methodologies & reliable data
6/ Of course, political-economy factors will also shape our electricity planning & investments & we’ll need to work wisely with power, interests, institutions, ideology & knowledge, and show transparently the costs or benefits to our economy & society of different choices
7/ So, when you hear talk of a ‘balanced’ energy mix, or ‘using all our energy resources’ understand that policy choices are being avoided & cover is given for vested interests. What SA now needs is bold planning & investment choices in support of transparent policy goals
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