Myanmar election commission has just announced areas where elections will be cancelled for security reasons. Here’s a quick analysis. Rakhine State is the big news; this could be a serious conflict flashpoint. 1/7 facebook.com/uecmyanmar/pos…
RAKHINE: Major cancellations, with authorities taking a maximalist approach that will anger Rakhine people and parties. 9 townships (out of 17) totally cancelled. 4 more partially cancelled (Sittwe, Kyaukpyu, Ann, Toungup). Only 4 unaffected (Gwa, Thandwe, Munaung, Ramree). 2/7
All of Arakan National Party safe seats totally cancelled except Sittwe. 3 of 4 townships currently held by NLD unaffected by cancellations. This tilts the election in Rakhine decisively in favour of NLD. While there are valid security concerns, will be very controversial. 3/7
Recall that unknown gunmen, likely linked to Arakan Army, already kidnapped 3 NLD candidates in the NLD-held township of Toungup this week. Possible that AA will now try to prevent voting in NLD stronghold of southern Rakhine. Worrying 23 days ahead. 4/7 myanmar-now.org/en/news/three-…
Also unprecedented, some urban wards cancelled (in Kyaukpyu, Toungup, Ann towns) In 2010/2015 all partial cancellations were rural villages. That some wards in Ann town have been deemed unsafe for elections is striking - this town is HQ of military’s powerful Western Command! 5/7
SHAN: As expected, the 4 UWSA-controlled townships plus Mongla all totally cancelled. Authorities can’t enter these areas, hence no voter lists. Also, Mongkaung tsp cancelled (central Shan, SSPP area). Plenty of other partial cancellations in Shan. 6/7
Also partial cancellations in Kachin, Kayin, Bago, Mon. No word yet on Chin, where significant cancellations expected in Paletwa. 7/7
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