Thread by @rshorsey

Controversy & claims of bias after Myanmar election commission declined (so far) to cancel elections in western Myanmar’s most conflict affected township, Paletwa. Strange decision when polls have been cancelled in most of Rakhine State, even places with no fighting. Why? 1/6

It looks bad for the election commission (under the constitution, a non-independent body appointed by the sitting president) because nearly all cancelled seats in Rakhine were held by ethnic opposition party ANP. Whereas all 5 seats in Paletwa are held by the NLD. What gives? 2/6

First, while decision to cancel most of Rakhine is controversial & inflammatory, it’s not necessarily unfounded. Even in areas of Rakhine with no fighting, police/govt officials often attacked & in fear of lives. Last week 3 NLD candidates kidnapped at gunpoint in “safe” area 3/6

The problem is cancellation decisions are taken by commission in totally opaque manner, no engagement or public explanations given. This erodes trust and leaves the way open to claims of bias and gerrymandering by authorities. Paletwa case reinforces these perceptions... 4/6

Let’s be clear: no way credible polls can be held in Paletwa. Town short of food as access roads cut. Internet shut off. Regular fighting. Civil servants live in fear. Polling materials must be flown in by helicopter. Going ahead damages commission credibility & risks lives. 5/6

Damages credibility because only plausible explanation anyone can think of for polls proceeding is it’s an NLD stronghold. Risks lives because (even if later cancelled) pollworkers/materials must be sent thru warzone, voters at risk, candidates have targets on their backs. 6/6