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16 Oct, 7 tweets, 3 min read
How does leadership and storytelling impact the success against the #coronavirus? A tale of two islands gives us a clue: the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Thread.

Islands have a strong advantage: They can more easily control and test who gets in and out.

[1/
Germany is doing an amazing job but still struggles, surrounded by countries full of infections, and without a strong fence.

Conversely, Taiwan, Japan, New Zealand, Australia or South Korea (de facto an island) have been able to control the epidemic.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
[2/
Great Britain is also an island. Yet the March outbreak was one of the worst in the world.

Partly, it's because the island is hyperconnected, and imported many infections early on. But also, the UK was slower than other EU countries in locking down.

Why?
[3/
The government was advised by "experts" that people would not respect lockdowns. They had to be very careful applying them. After a terrible outbreak and witnessing how EU citizens respected lockdowns, they applied theirs too—late.
bmj.com/content/370/bm…
[4/7]
Since then, the country has changed its stance several times, and has been wishy-washy on the overall strategy.

[5/7]
Compare that to New Zealand

The NZ prime minister @jacindaardern, was strong and decisive. And her amazing communication sold the strategy to the people, with brilliant expressions like the "team of five million".
[6/7]

nytimes.com/2020/05/23/wor…
There are no reasons why the UK couldn't do what NZ has done. Or Australia. Or Taiwan. Or South Korea. Or Japan.
But here we are.

[7/7]

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More from @tomaspueyo

Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
16 Oct
The question that puzzles me the most about the #coronavirus: Why has Latin America had so many more infections and deaths than Africa?

This is prevalence (active cases/100k ppl)
~14x lower in Africa on average
[1/
And this is deaths.
15x lower
[2/
The main driver is probably not the measurement of either cases or deaths, since there are many countries in both regions, and their counting is probably similar on average. The Fatality Rate is broadly comparable too.
[3/8]
Read 9 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
15 Oct
The most stupid financial advice is probably “plan to retire at 65”.

1. That’s inspired by 19th century Germany’s retirement innovation, when life expectancy was closer to 60. In developed countries it’s now closer to ~85

[1/
2. That meant social security was viable then. It won’t be by the time most of today’s working ppl retire

3. We live longer, so we can work longer.

[2/
4. When you live longer, you also spend $ for a longer time, so you need to save a bigger amount while you work to survive retirement, so you enjoy your young age less, just when you should be enjoying it +
[3/
Read 8 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
13 Oct
An annotated timelapse of how the #coronavirus incidence evolved over the last few months across all European countries.

What can we learn from it?

(Map and data gathered by @innouveau . Annotations mine. Thx for the link @RichardBurghout )
[1/7]
For me the country that stands out is Germany: How despite being in the very middle of Europe, highly connected, dense, surrounded by countries with massive prevalence, it's still doing pretty well.
[2/7]
It's no East Asian country, but it's also not an island with SARS/MERS experience. And it's not easy to control the virus when people from every other EU country — with few proper measures — are bringing you infections.

So how did Germany do it?
zeit.de/2020/33/corona…
[3/7]
Read 8 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
5 Oct
Many ppl focus on @realDonaldTrump ‘s chances of life vs death. I hope—like all those infected—that he lives. But I’m not only concerned about that. I’m also worried about mental health.
Thread

The 1918 flu epidemic was known to cause mental issues. From The Great Influenza:
[1
“The 1918 virus did seem to reach the brain. The war fought on that battlefield could destroy brain cells and make it difficult to concentrate, or alter behavior, or interfere with thinking, or even cause temporary psychosis.”
[2/
“If this occurred in only a minority of cases, the virus’s impact on the mind was nonetheless real.”

This might have impacted the US’ negotiations after WWI, and indirectly caused WWII. Wilson, the US president during the war, negotiated the peace.
[3/
Read 12 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
30 Sep
Starlink, the satellite constellation from @elonmusk ‘s @SpaceX, will change the world.

It will attack mobile telecom monopolies around the world and they won’t be able to compete.

Summary thread of the article below [1/]

caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2019/11/02/sta…
SpaceX has an developed an unfair advantage: by dramatically reducing the cost of space launches, they can afford to send satellites to space at a price nobody can compete with.

It’s so low that few other companies can replicate it easily, soon
[2/
So SpaceX will send hundreds of thousands of satellites to orbit, covering all earth with enough bandwidth and at a low enough cost that it will be much much cheaper than cable for billions of people, starting with rural and suburban areas.
[3/]
Read 5 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
20 Sep
RBG's death highlights one failure of US democracy

The fact that 1 death can substantially influence the lives of generations in a 330M country shows the system doesn't work.

In a world where things evolve ever faster, we need systems that can keep pace.
[1/6]
Part of the pbm is in the selection process. Presidential appointment + senate approval are only as legitimate as electoral college + senate representativeness.

Senate representativeness depends on # of states, which does not seem reasonable

[2/6]
The current # of states is heavily partisan. The Dakotas, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana and Washington were admitted in the union to control the gov, and to this day biases the gov towards rural voters.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
[3/6]
Read 6 tweets

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