AB: Daily new cases grow exponentially since May 25.

Doubling time calculated for May 25 - Oct 15 is:
50 days (~7 weeks) (95% CI [45, 57])

It can flip to a faster rate at *any time*
It cannot slow down by itself.

Even at a current rate it's bad;
It means:
It means, that even if the growth won't speed up, we will have:
500 daily new cases by Dec 03
1000 daily new cases by Jan 21

and so on..., doubling every 7 weeks.

Persistent exponential growth means that the virus spread is not under control.

It's not a "Slow Burn"* or a "Dance", oscillating around some fixed number.
This is a constant growth.
Slowish, yet persistent.

(*Disclaimer: I'm against Slow Burn as a goal. I'm for #ZeroCovid)
Dangers of relatively slow exp. growth

1) Cancer analogy:

It is better to have slow spreading cancer than fast spreading cancer.
But an *untreated* slow spreading cancer might be much worse than a fast spreading cancer for which one receives immediate therapy.

Dangers of relatively slow exp. growth

2) The 'boiling frog fable'


Dangers of relatively slow exp. growth

3) It can flip to a much faster growth at any moment.

Theory: due to stochasticity, fat tails, high overdispersion (k)
Empiricism: It happened eg. in Ontario and Italy


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