Looking at the FGN Half Year Budget review....a few things

Expected Revenue N40b
Actual Revenue N0.00

2.Govt Owned Entp. (Exclude NNPC)
Expected Revenue N495b
Actual Revenue N0.00

3. Recoveries/Fines
Expected Revenue N118b
Actual Revenue N0.00
10 year average for collections

(2010 to 2019)

1. Company Income Tax: N111.49
2. VAT: N69.27
3. Customs: N66.40b
4. Independent Revenue N50.72
Half year 2020

Total FGN share of Crude Oil & Gas

Total FGN personal cost (MDA only)
Excess Crude Account

2019: $350m (Three Hundred and Fifty Million USD) paid as Consulting and Litigation fees


More than Paris Club refund to States and Investment in NSIA in HY 2020
Not all bad news..

Half Year 2020

Petroleum Profits Tax
Budget: N355b
Actual: N1,057

Service on Foreign Debt
Budget: N402b
Actual: N251

Source: FGN Budget Office

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More from @FinPlanKaluAja1

4 Oct
In April 2006, Nigeria paid off all her foreign debt.

It was a good deal, Nigeria essentially paid $12b to settle over $30b in debt, in effect an over 50% discount.

Should Nigeria have used $12b to build rails or pay debt?

A very short trend
Borrowing is front loaded consumption.

When Nigeria Borrowed $30b (principal plus interest) she essentially consumed "tomorrow's $30b earnings "today".

To repay, Nigeria has to take current earnings and apply to current obligations.

What are the current earnings? Crude oil
Let's step back, did Nigeria actually borrow $30b?


$30b represented principal and accrued intrest..As long as a loan were "open", intrest accrued.

The debt had ballooned not because Nigeria borrowed more but that Nigeria serviced the loan less
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct
The usual dose of how Nigeria was once great, what went wrong & what potentials Nigeria has.

Never has so much potential been wasted by so few on behalf of so many than in Nigeria.

Failed State? far from it, but failing in creating an inclusive economy for all.

Happy Birthday Image
The problem is easy to see, low growth and even that "growth" is below the rate of population growth.... Image
Nigeria, largest economy in Africa, with largest number of people living in poverty in Africa. it is that stark. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
25 Sep
In my days of innocence, I went on a business call with a female colleague to a shop in Shoprite Lagos.

Bored, I did some window shopping, I saw these ladies shoes, all with just the left pair, I picked it up, there was "323" written on a sticker on sole.
I reasoned "was it N32, 300.00? Or left shoe alone

Curious, i asked the shop attention? "How much are these shoes? They look too nice for N32k"

The shop owner looked over at me, in my nice suit and said, "its actually N323,000 a pair"

Three Hundred and Twenty Three Thousand!!
Wait what?

N323,000 how?

My perplexed expression was so innocent, so she explained.

"They are Louboutins..see the red soles.."

I was still not inhaling properly, back then i think Nestlé stock was like N500 a share, I was calculating... Image
Read 4 tweets
24 Sep
Is there anything like a Risk free Investment?

Well what is risk? Risk is the chance you may not achieve your investment objective, in financial lingo its called Volatility of returns .
So "risky" means more volatility of returns, lower risk means lower volatility of returns, higher risk means higher volatility of returns. So higher risk translates to a greater propensity for higher returns NOT a guarantee of higher returns.
Similarly lower risk translates to a lower propensity for volatility NOT a guarantee of zero volatility.
Read 6 tweets
14 Sep
@SECNigeria guidelines on Cryptocurrencies.

I will post then "translate"

"The position of the Commission is that virtual crypto assets are securities, unless proven otherwise."

This means Cryptocurrencies are now regulated by SEC..

You need SEC approval to sell them
"Thus, the burden of proving that the crypto assets proposed to be offered are not securities is placed on the issuer or sponsor of the said assets."

If you are selling anything even remotely resembles a digital currency, SEC regulates you, you have to prove its NOT Crypto.
"Issuers or sponsors are expected to satisfy the burden of proving that the virtual assets do not constitute securities by making an initial assessment filing."

To sell cryptocurrencies, you have to file an assessment
Read 4 tweets
10 Sep
Just a few facts.

1. Nigeria does not produce enough food to feed her citizens...how do I know, well food is expensive because supply is low.

2. Nigeria imports food to make up the difference..Imports are paid in USD
3. Importers prefer "CBN" dollars to fund imports because its "cheaper".

4. If you stop CBN funding food imports, then importers will fund via BDC or "autonomous" sources, at a higher exchange rate.

5. Simply put, imported food will be more expensive tomorrow

6. Consumer Price Index is made up of food items, if food prices rise, inflation will rise.

7.If inflation rises, Naira value will fall, meaning more Naira to fund food imports even if demand stays same.

8. Essentially a self defeating circle of high inflation and food prices.
Read 4 tweets

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