Countries like Australia & New Zealand & Japan & South Korea are applauded for their countercontagion success. But it's for this very reason - their success - that an eventual reckoning with the reality of this pandemic may well be, for these nations, the bitterest of all. 1/9
The hardest thing for people in the years ahead will be coming to terms with the fact that all their sacrifice to "stop" this pandemic has been futile. Even when C19 is "under control", the cases keep limping along & the virus will not get to zero & stay there. 2/9
Say a vaccine gets developed very soon, and is efficiently produced to be administered at the levels required. No one is seriously considering the time it takes to vaccine millions and millions of people. 3/9
For instance, if Australia can vaccinate 10,000 people a day nonstop year round, & the herd immunity threshold is 80%, that's 5.5 years to immunize the country. The border is going to stay closed all that time? It'll reopen with permanent 14 day quarantines for all entering? 4/9
Remember, as it opens the border, it's got a super low herd resistance since it was so "successful" at limiting the virus. So it's all the easier for uncontrolled spread to take hold now. And what if it's 2022 and there isn't actually a vaccine? What if there never is one? 5/9
What if these countries actually have to then make the conscious choice after all this "success" to actually just bin it & accept the virus has to go through the population in order for the international borders to be openable & opened again? 6/9
I can't imagine anything more painful than having given my means, my mental & physical well-being, my social freedom to "control" COVID & then realising that I was so "successful" I now actually had to make an active decision to junk everything & stop suppressing the virus... 7/9
...because the borders can't stayed closed forever & what was always clear becomes finally unavoidable: that being part of the globe in a global pandemic means there's no other way out but through with the rest & going down this road was madness to begin with. 8/9
All Australia & New Zealand in particular have achieved is desychronizing themselves from the rest of the world -- setting themselves up to be the last countries on earth to be finished with the pandemic. Hopefully, it doesn't take getting all the way to 2022 to grasp it. 9/9

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with epifragmentalist

epifragmentalist Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @contrarhetorics

19 Oct
That's the problem with the worldview here. National quarantining is just an idea. Not a concrete logistical consideration. How many people who take international holidays can afford an added two weeks of quarantine at their own cost? They'll need to get used to the idea. 1/20
Or maybe the state should pay for those two weeks in food & accommodation for every person who wishes to travel internationally? What a sterling use of taxation resources. Much better than them being spent on anything to do with health! Easy enough an idea to get used to? 2/20
But before we go on with tourism, let's look at trade. Since commercial flights are actually integral to international trading. As a rough rule, between 40-50% of air freight is typically carried between nations in cargo holds commercial flights. 3/20
Read 22 tweets
18 Oct
Completely agree, @CapitalRojas. In reality, this virus is so extraordinarily clearcut in its at-risk demographics that developing a vaccine & applying it to the vulnerable reduces it as a threat to nearly nil. Full immunization does not need to occur to "go back to normal." 1/11
The stress here on the time needed to immunize everyone is taking The Experts©'s claim about the "open threat" the virus is as if it were true and showing how short-termist, incautious & ill-thought out actually - a reckless gamble on a "silver bullet" about the immanence... 2/11
...of a vaccine that doesn't actually exist - the drive for "covid free success" has been -- even if they *were*, indeed, correct about C19's general dangerousness. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
16 Oct
They're shameless so they'll likely try to claim this shows the "Rule of Six" works. A quick refresher, then, that it was announced on Sept 9 & imposed on September 14. The case rate of the elderly actually remains flat up to the survey of Sept 9. 1/9
The next survey - on Sept 21 - finds that the daily positive results actually *grew* since the implementation of the Rule, only dipping down for the first time in the week prior to October 8. Let's now compare to the total case picture. 2/9
From Sept 11-13, the case rate actually declines. Then a sharp secular ascent *locks in* from the day of the 14th. Almost as if there were some kind of upfront intensifying effect that occurs when you corral people through association restrictions.🤔3/9
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!