Completely agree, @CapitalRojas. In reality, this virus is so extraordinarily clearcut in its at-risk demographics that developing a vaccine & applying it to the vulnerable reduces it as a threat to nearly nil. Full immunization does not need to occur to "go back to normal." 1/11
The stress here on the time needed to immunize everyone is taking The Experts©'s claim about the "open threat" the virus is as if it were true and showing how short-termist, incautious & ill-thought out actually - a reckless gamble on a "silver bullet" about the immanence... 2/11
...of a vaccine that doesn't actually exist - the drive for "covid free success" has been -- even if they *were*, indeed, correct about C19's general dangerousness. 3/11
It's also possible that the herd immunity threshold is less than 60% -- I absolutely agree. Or even that the virus is *already* on the wan globally due to its actually being *so* non-virulent in spite of its speed of transmission it is experiencing increasing entropy. 4/11
I deliberately opted for the 80% threshold since it's what the virusmongers use to cast a "strategy" of getting to herd immunity as ludicrious. 5/11
Using their own threshold here & applying it to the dull, concrete logistics of their holy grail of a vaccine is just about saying, "Ok, well, if that's true, here's the consequences of what you're claiming for *your* "plan" to cripple the world until a vaccine comes along." 6/11
Especially in the "successful" nations, the appearance of an endgame to all this resides in the prospect of a vaccine. It's key to the "rationality" of undergoing all the deprivations of the "response". It's what seems to make the sacrifice worth it at core. 7/11
Antilockdowners have made the absolute crucial point that a vaccine might not even eventuate. But since a vaccine probably will emerge, it's also crucial to draw out the realities entailed by its doing so, to illustrate ... 8/11
... the concrete timeframes that The Experts© and the Lifesavers® keep fogging with their perpetual emergency clamour & their manipulations about the consequences of "uncontrolled spread"... (as though they actually had a way, put in a global context, to control it.) 9/11
Especially because they so often prop up the wisdom of all the destructive paraphrenalia of lockdownism - border closures, social distancing, masking etc - by claiming it's a temporary abridgement *until* a vaccine arrives. 10/11
There's an enormous asterisk that comes with that and here's the quiet bit: it's not only about curtailing society for an unknown duration while waiting for a vaccine but also curtailing it for an unknown duration after. 11/11

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More from @contrarhetorics

19 Oct
Short answer: Nonstop, simultaneous, year-round worldwide demand & production + procurement limits is the main reason why I opted for a standard 10,000. 1/45
Long answer: 10/K a day is an abstract guesstimate. It doesn't have any particular mathematical rigor to it. But it wasn't arbitrarily arrived at. I thought long & hard before settling on it. 2/45
First factor I considered is that it's an entirely new vaccine so it has to be produced in addition to the yearly shots of rubella, flu, measles, mumps, etc. The expansion of capacity also has to maintain the existing production of vaccines. This in itself raises a worry. 3/45
Read 45 tweets
19 Oct
That's the problem with the worldview here. National quarantining is just an idea. Not a concrete logistical consideration. How many people who take international holidays can afford an added two weeks of quarantine at their own cost? They'll need to get used to the idea. 1/20
Or maybe the state should pay for those two weeks in food & accommodation for every person who wishes to travel internationally? What a sterling use of taxation resources. Much better than them being spent on anything to do with health! Easy enough an idea to get used to? 2/20
But before we go on with tourism, let's look at trade. Since commercial flights are actually integral to international trading. As a rough rule, between 40-50% of air freight is typically carried between nations in cargo holds commercial flights. 3/20
Read 22 tweets
17 Oct
Countries like Australia & New Zealand & Japan & South Korea are applauded for their countercontagion success. But it's for this very reason - their success - that an eventual reckoning with the reality of this pandemic may well be, for these nations, the bitterest of all. 1/9
The hardest thing for people in the years ahead will be coming to terms with the fact that all their sacrifice to "stop" this pandemic has been futile. Even when C19 is "under control", the cases keep limping along & the virus will not get to zero & stay there. 2/9
Say a vaccine gets developed very soon, and is efficiently produced to be administered at the levels required. No one is seriously considering the time it takes to vaccine millions and millions of people. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
16 Oct
They're shameless so they'll likely try to claim this shows the "Rule of Six" works. A quick refresher, then, that it was announced on Sept 9 & imposed on September 14. The case rate of the elderly actually remains flat up to the survey of Sept 9. 1/9
The next survey - on Sept 21 - finds that the daily positive results actually *grew* since the implementation of the Rule, only dipping down for the first time in the week prior to October 8. Let's now compare to the total case picture. 2/9
From Sept 11-13, the case rate actually declines. Then a sharp secular ascent *locks in* from the day of the 14th. Almost as if there were some kind of upfront intensifying effect that occurs when you corral people through association restrictions.🤔3/9 coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
Read 9 tweets

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