The timeline in the Bloomberg story on Hulu is that Hulu presented a plan to go international at the end of 2019. Iger and McCarthy were initially supportive and were to present at a Board meeting in Jan 2020.
Publicly, on the Q3 call in November they were asked about taking Hulu international and said they’d have more to say after the new year and that “we’re working through the formulation of a strategy in terms of what markets...”
On the Q4 call in Feb 2020, after the Jan Board meeting, Iger said

“We are working up a plan to take Hulu internationally. We actually have a lot of specifics around it”

“We do plan to begin rolling Hulu out, I’d say probably in 2021 internationally”
Then in August it’s announced that instead of Hulu, Star will be used as the international general entertainment network.
In October, Uday Shankar who built Hotstar into the market leader it is, said he was leaving…
Meanwhile the argument for Star instead of Hulu is that Hulu doesn’t have a brand name internationally and licenses its content. But that was true in 2019 and Feb 2020. So seems like an odd realization.

Another explanation is IMO crazy but seems may have played a role.
The idea that you would sacrifice value creation in Hulu because Comcast would participate in perhaps a couple billion of additional proceeds is bonkers.
Hulu remains one of the longest running strategic enigmas I've seen
If you weren't going to take Hulu International, why buy out Comcast? D+ clearly could stand on its own in the US. And if you didn't need Hulu I go back to why did they buy Fox? For NatGeo and the Simpsons? Clearly some hindsight here b/c no one knew D+ would be so successful but
this was a thread from when the Fox deal was first rumored

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More from @modestproposal1

4 Oct
Did he say this with a straight face? The balance sheet is a strategic tool? The wash-writedown-repeat cycle remains part of their DNA? Wonderful stuff here.
The attempts to paint the M&A spree as part of some strategic plan as opposed to just stumbling around, runs head first into the reporting about said deals
Read 5 tweets
19 Sep
Definitive evidence for the bored markets hypothesis:

“It’s better than the stock market,” Mr. Garcia said. “I got a bunch of these plants when they were in the double digits, and now they are in the four-digit realm.”…
Sounds vaguely familiar:

“Flora with sought-after features, such as splashes of color and holes in their leaves, are often the result of genetic mutations...

The ghostly white streaks of the Variegated Monstera Albo can send prices up to $250 per leaf.”
Ah yes:

“Longtime plant lovers say the craze for rare plants is reminiscent of a housing bubble, or the tulip mania that gripped the Netherlands during the 1600s, when bulb prices hit stratospheric heights before crashing.”
Read 8 tweets
16 Sep
This story of Will Danoff getting a muffin is fantastic Image
Amazing Image
“I was like, Herb, the great Warren Buffett says he got — he lost a lot of money in U.S. Air. How can you make money in the airline industry? And he said, Warren bet at the wrong airline” Image
Read 5 tweets
2 Sep
Concentration is the essence of an escalating euphoria. By late-stage cycles, many buyers are fixating on “winners” with the purchase motive being further stock gains, rather than any logic of long-term value.
Thus, as the market soars, attention is increasingly focused on those with the largest earnings and stock price gains, and interest in the B players falls away. (This concentration effect naturally favors larger companies, perhaps because they can better absorb a rising demand.)
The second principle is the outperformance of quality and low beta stocks in a rapidly-rising market. This is clearly odd behavior and is very rare, restricted as far as I can tell to some, but not all, late-stage bull markets.
Read 8 tweets
1 Sep
You cannot overstate how much AT&T rationalized their acquisitions and "strategy" of the last few years by citing addressable advertising. It was of course total nonsense, but to walk away from it now, is to publicly admit defeat. Image
Read 4 tweets
31 Aug
Departing Bernstein analyst's thoughts on investing in tech:

"There is a misguided obsession in many tech circles around predicting the future of technology. In contrast, I would posit that predicting the future is actually pretty easy - the hard part is making any money on it."
"In short, predicting the future of technology is easy: just look at what's already failed, and assume that somebody will eventually make a version that actually works."
"In the tech sector, linear extrapolation is a fools' errand because outcomes follow a power law distribution...

...when a technology really takes off, it really, really takes off - success in the tech industry is oftentimes mean-repelling rather than mean-reverting..."
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