The cumulative death rate – since the start at the pandemic – in European countries.
The 5 countries where most lives were lost are: Belgium, Spain, the UK, Italy, and Sweden.
The countries that did well – those at the bottom – suffered a death rate that was 10-times(!) lower.
And these are the current positive rates of testing. Those countries that did poorly in containing the pandemic were – and are – also doing poorly in testing.
Belgium, Spain, UK, Italy, and Sweden have high positive rates.
Especially Finland, Norway, and Denmark are doing well.
1/n] The pandemic will end when we reach herd immunity. The question is how we get there.
In a world without science and technological innovation there would be no alternative: The only way to achieve immunity is for a large share of the population to get infected.
2] But that’s not the world we live in. We can achieve herd immunity via a vaccine.
3] So it's a question of how optimistic we are about medical innovation.
Being in favour of a high infection rate now makes sense if you are pessimisic about the world's chance to develop a vaccine or to make progress towards good antivirals.
What will the global decline of economic growth mean for extreme poverty?
• Orange is the pre-COVID scenario.
• The rise of poverty shows us what to expect under a contraction in global growth this year of 8 percent and 5 percent, respectively.
This is very, very bad.
The global goal of ending extreme poverty globally was out of reach before the pandemic as I and many others have written last year.
Now with the global pandemic it is not realistic at all sadly.
(Reaching the 2030 would now require all countries to grow at rates of 8 percent per year between 2021 and 2030 and this we cannot realistically expect.)
1/n] I think it's a very good decision to give this year's Peace Nobel to the World Food Programme.
Hunger is one of the world's biggest problems and the WFP – one of the UN insitutions that works outstandingly well – is making the world a better place.
In the UK the number of cases rose rapidly.
But the public – and authorities – are only learning this now because these cases were only published now as a backlog.
The reason was apparently that the database is managed in Excel and the number of columns had reached the maximum.
Glad that they are apparently now working on a solution. Not one, but several Excel spreadsheets…
It is now also the main headline at the BBC: bbc.co.uk/news/uk-544125…
At the end of last week confirmed cases were "actually nearer 11,000" – about 4,000 more than reported.
This is very, very bad and also means that the outbreak is much more rapid than thought.
Economists are not known for agreeing much with one another.
Regarding the challenge of how to achieve the required reduction of greenhouse gas emissions a majority of the most widely respected economists agrees however: carbon taxes.
This here is a survey of 365 economists who have published papers related to climate change “in a highly ranked, peer-reviewed economics or environmental economics journal” and the result is the same.
This survey also finds that compared with the general public (pie chart at the bottom) a much larger share of economists believes that climate change is a serious problem and that it is time to act now.
(Very much contrary to the caricature of economists in some media outlets.)