The cumulative death rate – since the start at the pandemic – in European countries.

The 5 countries where most lives were lost are: Belgium, Spain, the UK, Italy, and Sweden.

The countries that did well – those at the bottom – suffered a death rate that was 10-times(!) lower.
And these are the current positive rates of testing. Those countries that did poorly in containing the pandemic were – and are – also doing poorly in testing.

Belgium, Spain, UK, Italy, and Sweden have high positive rates.

Especially Finland, Norway, and Denmark are doing well.
You can explore all this data for yourself in our Data Explorer…

There you also find global data and data on confirmed cases, number of tests, and much more
You can also look at the excess deaths from all causes to see the big difference between countries that did well so far and those that did not.

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More from @MaxCRoser

18 Oct
1/n] The pandemic will end when we reach herd immunity. The question is how we get there.

In a world without science and technological innovation there would be no alternative: The only way to achieve immunity is for a large share of the population to get infected.
2] But that’s not the world we live in. We can achieve herd immunity via a vaccine.
3] So it's a question of how optimistic we are about medical innovation.
Being in favour of a high infection rate now makes sense if you are pessimisic about the world's chance to develop a vaccine or to make progress towards good antivirals.
Read 8 tweets
9 Oct
What will the global decline of economic growth mean for extreme poverty?

• Orange is the pre-COVID scenario.
• The rise of poverty shows us what to expect under a contraction in global growth this year of 8 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

This is very, very bad. Image
The global goal of ending extreme poverty globally was out of reach before the pandemic as I and many others have written last year.

It would have required all countries to grow at 7 percent annually.…
Now with the global pandemic it is not realistic at all sadly.

(Reaching the 2030 would now require all countries to grow at rates of 8 percent per year between 2021 and 2030 and this we cannot realistically expect.) Image
Read 5 tweets
9 Oct
1/n] I think it's a very good decision to give this year's Peace Nobel to the World Food Programme.

Hunger is one of the world's biggest problems and the WFP – one of the UN insitutions that works outstandingly well – is making the world a better place.…
2] The world has made a lot of progress against hunger. This is the decline of famine deaths over time.

The WFP helped to avert possible famines in southern Africa (1991–92 & 2000–01), Afghanistan (2001), and western Africa (2012).

[Our work on famines:]
3] But hunger remains a massive problem – 11% of the world population are undernourished.

And after decades of progress the share of people that are undernourished has not fallen in recent years.

[@_HannahRitchie's work on hunger on @OurWorldInData:…]
Read 5 tweets
7 Oct
Almost unbelievably fast progress here in Britain. Coal is disappearing rapidly.

This visualization shows the daily share of Britain's electricity that is generated by coal.

In 2012 still 40% was generated by burning coal. Now we go months without any.…
Here is the recent change in the context of the last century.

Smil and others say that energy transitions are slow, but this doesn’t look slow to me.

Britain was absolutely dominated by coal for generations. And now Britain got almost rid of it.…
40% of electricity was generated by coal back in 2012.

In 2013 the country implemented the ‘carbon price floor’ (a top up carbon tax to the ETS).

According to this study (chapter 4) this is what led to the unprecedented reduction in coal generation.…
Read 4 tweets
5 Oct
In the UK the number of cases rose rapidly.
But the public – and authorities – are only learning this now because these cases were only published now as a backlog.

The reason was apparently that the database is managed in Excel and the number of columns had reached the maximum.
Here is the article…

Glad that they are apparently now working on a solution. Not one, but several Excel spreadsheets…
It is now also the main headline at the BBC:…
At the end of last week confirmed cases were "actually nearer 11,000" – about 4,000 more than reported.

This is very, very bad and also means that the outbreak is much more rapid than thought.
Read 5 tweets
22 Sep
Economists are not known for agreeing much with one another.

Regarding the challenge of how to achieve the required reduction of greenhouse gas emissions a majority of the most widely respected economists agrees however: carbon taxes. ImageImage
This here is a survey of 365 economists who have published papers related to climate change “in a highly ranked, peer-reviewed economics or environmental economics journal” and the result is the same.

[link…] Image
This survey also finds that compared with the general public (pie chart at the bottom) a much larger share of economists believes that climate change is a serious problem and that it is time to act now.

(Very much contrary to the caricature of economists in some media outlets.) Image
Read 5 tweets

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