Fact: in 2018, Beto O'Rourke won TX's 11 counties w/ a Whole Foods Market by 802k votes & lost everywhere else by 1,016k votes, for a loss of 214k overall.

Since 2018, TX's 11 Whole Foods counties have added a net 765k voters, while TX's other 243 counties have added just 396k.
Over the long term, this is totally unsustainable for TX Republicans unless they can reverse their backslide w/ suburban professionals in major metros.

The only question is whether 2020 is the tipping point, and right now it's a close call.
The major determinant of the presidential race in TX, in my opinion, will be Dem turnout/performance in low-income Hispanic areas *without* Whole Foods Markets.

That's why I'll be watching targeting of Dem ads/high-profile visits in places like RGV, Laredo etc. in next 16 days.

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More from @Redistrict

16 Oct
Brief thread: here's why I don't put a ton of stock into the *overall* pro-R registration trend in FL from '16 to '20. Take the 33 least populous of FL's 67 counties, which are mostly rural and located in the north/panhandle (aka the Deep South)...
In November 2016, these 33 counties collectively had a narrow 42%-40% GOP voter registration advantage. But here's how they *voted:*

Trump: 369,045 (67%)
Clinton: 170,871 (31%)

Btw, Trump's statewide margin was 112,911 votes.
Fast forward to 2020: the final data shows the GOP voter registration advantage in these 33 counties has grown to 48%-32%.

These aren't new Trump voters. These are existing Trump voters formalizing their party change from D to R.
Read 5 tweets
16 Oct
Just in: final FL voter reg. data. Since this March's primary, here are each party's net gains:

GOP: +344,465
Dem: +197,821
NPA/Other: +197,818

Compare to the same period in '16:

GOP: +274,207
Dem: +307,961
NPA/Other: +220,857

Trump's '16 FL margin: 112,911 votes
For reference, here's the story I wrote for @NBCNews a few weeks ago putting the GOP's recent registration success in FL/NC/PA in context: nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Here's the final Nov. 2020 FL voter breakdown by party and race (14,441,869 registrants):

37% Dem
36% GOP
27% NPA/Other

61.5% White
17.3% Hispanic
13.4% Black
7.8% Other

Compare to Nov. 2016:

38% Dem
35% GOP
27% NPA/Other

64.2% White
15.7% Hispanic
13.4% Black
6.7% Other
Read 6 tweets
15 Oct
New Marist/PBS & NBC/WSJ polls bring us to a critical mass of October live-interview national polls, and to me Biden's gains appear to be pretty even across the board (except for Black voters, where there wasn't much room to grow).
To be clear, "final 2016 polls" are via @Nate_Cohn/@UpshotNYT's estimates and this chart is my running average of 2020 national live-interview poll crosstabs, including NYT/Siena, CNN, ABC/WaPo, NBC/WSJ, Fox, Marist/PBS, Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Suffolk and Grinnell/Selzer.
One fascinating takeaway is that Biden's 12% lead over Trump is the same size as in June/July, but:

1) far fewer undecideds today (54%-42% vs. 52%-40%)
2) Biden's average lead has expanded by 4% since June/July among seniors & Hispanics
Read 4 tweets
9 Oct
New @pewresearch poll: Biden leads 69%-27% among those who plan to vote by mail, Trump leads 63%-31% among those who plan to vote on Election Day. pewresearch.org/politics/2020/…
Also interesting: @pewresearch finds that of the 5% of RVs who support Jorgensen/Hawkins, they would lean Trump over Biden 54%-42% if forced to choose - suggesting their presence might actually aid Biden?
Sorry, should have noted Biden also leading 55%-40% among early in person, per @pewresearch.
Read 4 tweets
6 Oct
My new @nytimes op-ed: meet the 10 counties in America that hold the key to President Trump's fate - and illustrate why he's in such deep trouble. nytimes.com/2020/10/06/opi…
Today, I'd rate all ten of these top bellwether counties as either "toss ups" or "lean Biden:"

1. Maricopa, AZ
2. Pinellas, FL
3. Peach, GA
4. Marshall, IA
5. Kent, MI
6. New Hanover, NC
7. Wood, OH
8. Erie, PA
9. Collin, TX
10. Sauk, WI
These places don't fit one stereotype: they run the gamut from meatpacking hubs to military bases and peach orchards to yacht-dense retiree havens.

But one thing they have in common: their votes will matter a whole lot more than most Americans' votes.
Read 6 tweets
4 Oct
The key to the stability of Biden's lead to date? He's basically stayed out of the way and ceded the spotlight to Trump. It's October, and this is still a referendum (vs. choice) election.
Hearing a few people ask: then why is Trump's approval up to 44.4% at @FiveThirtyEight? My answer: we're pretty close to Nov. and if the election were today, I wouldn't be surprised if Trump got ~44.4% of the vote.
Read 4 tweets

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