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Jonah Lupton 🇺🇸 Profile picture
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18 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
6 months ago I began working on my own quant model that uses 16 data points/signals to help determine price targets for my stocks.

The model is still a work in progress but feel free to give me one of your top stocks and I’ll run it through and give you a 12 month price target.
FWIW, I use the quant model to help determine entry/exit prices for my stocks as well as position sizing based on the price targets.

There are hundreds if not thousands of data points/signals that impact a stocks performance so I’m excited to keep improving my model over time.
If you get a minute please fill out this survey to help me pick a name for my new show about stocks, investing & building wealth forms.gle/dtH8hPyGddTe4F…

I did the survey yesterday through @SurveyMonkey but they won’t let me see the results unless I upgrade to a paid plan 🙄
I’ll do my best to reply to everyone by end of day but there’s hundreds and I’m trying to watch football and still have to hit the gym.

Just an FYI, if there’s less than 6 months of trading data and/or no analysts covering the company then my model can’t produce a result.
I’ve added Return on Equity (ROE) and Debt/Equity Ratio as the 17th and 18th data points in my quant model.

Other data points I’m looking into:
• ratio of insider buying vs insider selling
• weighting of estimates from the highest rated analysts on each company

• • •

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More from @JonahLupton

Jonah Lupton 🇺🇸 Profile picture
17 Oct
I’m finalizing the name for my new daily show. Please reply with your favorite or suggest one:

1) Finding the Growth
2) Outperforming the Markets
3) Beating the Markets
4) Talking Growth
5) Quest for Growth
6) MarketChatter
7) StockChat
8) Adding Alpha
9) Good Morning FinTwit
I took the 9 choices above and added some additional options from the replies. Please take 5 seconds to pick your favorite name and I’ll share the final results in a couple days. Thanks for the help. surveymonkey.com/r/3M6NWRR
Jonah’s Whales took a quick lead which is scary.

I don’t think I’d be able to start off each show with “Welcome to Jonah’s Whales” without laughing.
Read 4 tweets
Jonah Lupton 🇺🇸 Profile picture
14 Oct
Since $FSLY is down 27% after hours b/c they lowered quarterly rev guidance (likely b/c of TikTok), figured it would be a good time to re-share the tweet below.

The best growth stocks will pullback 20-40% from time to time. These are buying opportunities for long term investors.
Some people on here know that I had a diversified portfolio going into September. Then we saw a big pullback in growth stocks so I sold the bottom 2/3 of my portfolio and went to approx 80% $FSLY, 20% $SE and 20% $TSLA.

$FSLY was under $75 at this time.
Over the past 5 weeks I have been trimming $FSLY aggressively once it got back to $95.

From $95 to $135 where it got this week I trimmed my position from 80% down to 10%.

Having $FSLY down 30% after hours is painful but way less painful because I had a plan and stuck to it.
Read 10 tweets
Jonah Lupton 🇺🇸 Profile picture
14 Oct
Yesterday I posted my current portfolio so today I’m following up with a thread to explain why I own all 25 of my current stocks plus my updated 12 month price targets.

Hitting these price targets will require strong ongoing fundamentals and broad market tailwinds.
$FSLY: Fastly has the best in class CDN and edge computing technology plus with the recent acquisition of @signalsciences they are making the best websites faster and more secure including TikTok, Shopify, Spotify, Etsy, Pinterest, Airbnb, Twitter and hundreds more.

PT = $190
$TSLA: Tesla is leading the EV renovation, approx 3% of global car sales are EV’s and I believe over the next 10 years this goes to 50%, $TSLA will face increased competition but they have a massive head start. Solar and batteries are icing on the cake.

PT = $650
Read 26 tweets
Jonah Lupton 🇺🇸 Profile picture
13 Oct
Portfolio 10/13:
$FSLY 10%
$TSLA 9.4%
$SE 6.7%
$CRWD 5.9%
$ETSY 5.4%
$SQ 5.4%
$PTON 5.1%
$ROKU 5.1%
$TDOC 5.0%
$DOCU 4.9%
$PINS 4.3%
$DDOG 4.2%
$SHOP 4.1%
$API 3.9%
$Z 3.6%
$NET 2.5%
$CYRX 2.3%
$ZYXI 1.8%
$FTCH 1.8%
$RDFN 1.5%
$NLS 1.5%
$IIPR 1.4%
$LMND 1.4%
$BAND 1.4%
$DKNG 1.3%
As of the close today I’m up 200% year to date.

I have no idea what the next 11 weeks will look like for stocks but I’m cautiously optimistic with low rates, trillions of stimulus, trillions of investable cash and of course performance chasing from the big mutual/hedge funds.
I’ll keep giving portfolio updates twice per week.

Over the past few days I’ve been trimming my top positions and putting the proceeds into new positions as well as adding to existing positions that I believe have more upside over the next 3-6 months than my recent winners.
Read 6 tweets
Jonah Lupton 🇺🇸 Profile picture
6 Oct
A friend just messaged me and says he has $100,000 to invest but is afraid to start buying stocks because he thinks we might get a 10-20% drop.

This is what I told him to do👇🏽👇🏽
Plenty of investors have been predicting a big drop since April and look how much upside they’ve missed.

Bottom line, I’m not smart enough to predict a bottom and neither are you.
Even if you are bearish in the short term you should still be 50% invested because there are still dozens of reasons why these markets could go higher.

In terms of portfolio construction and averaging into positions this is what I suggested to him... 👇🏽👇🏽
Read 6 tweets
Jonah Lupton 🇺🇸 Profile picture
1 Sep
10 years ago @EricSYuan was just an employee at Cisco Systems.

Today he’s worth $25 billion making him one of the 25 wealthiest people in America.

Here’s how he did it 👇🏽👇🏽
Born in China, Eric had his visa application denied 8 times before finally moving to California in 1997.

At the time he barely spoke English but was a superior engineer and began working for WebEx, one of the early pioneers in video conferencing.
Eric worked his way up the ranks at WebEx until the company was acquired by Cisco in 2007.

Eric became VP of Engineering at Cisco however he was unable to generate any support for his new video conferencing concept that would be more user friendly and better on mobile devices.
Read 14 tweets

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