however, for a reformed & modernized #AzerbaijaniArmy conducting essentially a #counterterrorism liberation campaign in the #Karabakh mountains will not be harder than it would be for the #ArmenianArmy to try to hold on.

In an interesting twist of events & fate, waging war in the mountains of the occupied Karabakh would probably be harder or as hard for the #ArmenianArmy because:

1) they didn't prepare for it there as much

2) their C&C as well as special forces have been decimated
3) falling leaves will expose everything from above, so that natural defense will be nill in the winter

4) drones with IR cameras are going to be very effective, as would be the A.I. in TB2 UAVs that notices movement on the ground & alerts operator

5) cold weather would require some Armenians to at least sometimes burn wood for cooking/warmth - even if they can sustain without it for a week, what about 2nd week?

6) snow would make tracking people easier

7) some mountain tops & caves will be pre-cleared with explosives
8) there are anti-sniper technologies available

9) Azerbaijani special forces are actually well familiar with terrain - they visited it a lot in the past decades of clandestine operations. While Armenians would still hold advantage of knowing terrain, it won't be significant.
10) highly unlikely for soldiers from Armenia & foreigners to maintain high fighting spirits in such conditions. Only a very small force of a couple thousand would be able to sustain such warfare - for a month anyways, after which they will be inevitably neutralized or become POW
Due to the above 10 factors the #ArmenianArmy will not be able to engage in months of "partisan warfare"of a "death by a thousand cuts" against the #AzerbaijaniArmy. Only one result possible in 2020: #KarabakhIsAzerbaijan

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More from @USAzerisNetwork

19 Oct
In this thread we will reveal the demographics of the Karabakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) region since the Russian survey of 1810 till the last Soviet census of 1989/1990. (the Azerbaijani kingdom -- Karabakh Khanate -- signed the Kurekchay Treaty with the Russian Empire in 1805)
according to Armenian Gen. Tormasov of Russian Imperial Army in Karabakh in 1810 there were:

2,500 Armenian families = 12,500 Armenians (21%)
9,500 Azerbaijani families = 47,500 Azerbaijanis (79%)

Who was talking about majority Armenians in Karabakh in 19 century? @Kasparov63
In 1823 according to the comprehensive Russian population survey of Karabakh:

4,366 Armenian families (22%) = 21,830 Armenians
15,729 Azerbaijani families (78%) = 78,645 Azerbaijanis

Again, please note the year - 1823 - which was done next year after abolishing Karabakh khanate
Read 18 tweets
19 Oct
for decades we hear Armenian propaganda & nearly all media shamelessly falsify the historical record about Armenians being majority in "Nagorno-Karabakh". Note the terminology - "Nagorno-Karabakh" vs. Karabakh - it's very important to understand this nuance.
"Nagorno" is the Russian for "mountainous" & is a later add-on, a 20th century invention, to the historic name of Karabakh (that Azerbaijani word [consists of Turkic "kara" & Persian "bagh" - thus Azerbaijani], which means black garden, dates back to around 13th century).
Thus, historically, there was only one Karabakh region, with fairly stable borders. And Azerbaijanis, and before them their ancestors the Caucasian Albanians, have been a majority in that region at all time. At no time have Armenians been a majority in that region.
Read 6 tweets

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