Thread by @USAzerisNetwork

however, for a reformed & modernized #AzerbaijaniArmy conducting essentially a #counterterrorism liberation campaign in the #Karabakh mountains will not be harder than it would be for the #ArmenianArmy to try to hold on.

#KarabakhisAzerbajian

In an interesting twist of events & fate, waging war in the mountains of the occupied Karabakh would probably be harder or as hard for the #ArmenianArmy because:

1) they didn't prepare for it there as much

2) their C&C as well as special forces have been decimated

3) falling leaves will expose everything from above, so that natural defense will be nill in the winter

4) drones with IR cameras are going to be very effective, as would be the A.I. in TB2 UAVs that notices movement on the ground & alerts operator

#KarabakhisAzerbaijan

5) cold weather would require some Armenians to at least sometimes burn wood for cooking/warmth - even if they can sustain without it for a week, what about 2nd week?

6) snow would make tracking people easier

7) some mountain tops & caves will be pre-cleared with explosives

8) there are anti-sniper technologies available

9) Azerbaijani special forces are actually well familiar with terrain - they visited it a lot in the past decades of clandestine operations. While Armenians would still hold advantage of knowing terrain, it won't be significant.

10) highly unlikely for soldiers from Armenia & foreigners to maintain high fighting spirits in such conditions. Only a very small force of a couple thousand would be able to sustain such warfare - for a month anyways, after which they will be inevitably neutralized or become POW

Due to the above 10 factors the #ArmenianArmy will not be able to engage in months of "partisan warfare"of a "death by a thousand cuts" against the #AzerbaijaniArmy. Only one result possible in 2020: #KarabakhIsAzerbaijan