Thread by @USAzerisNetwork

In this thread we will reveal the demographics of the Karabakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) region since the Russian survey of 1810 till the last Soviet census of 1989/1990. (the Azerbaijani kingdom -- Karabakh Khanate -- signed the Kurekchay Treaty with the Russian Empire in 1805)

according to Armenian Gen. Tormasov of Russian Imperial Army in Karabakh in 1810 there were:

2,500 Armenian families = 12,500 Armenians (21%)
9,500 Azerbaijani families = 47,500 Azerbaijanis (79%)

Who was talking about majority Armenians in Karabakh in 19 century? @Kasparov63

In 1823 according to the comprehensive Russian population survey of Karabakh:

4,366 Armenian families (22%) = 21,830 Armenians
15,729 Azerbaijani families (78%) = 78,645 Azerbaijanis

Again, please note the year - 1823 - which was done next year after abolishing Karabakh khanate

1871

29,200 Armenians (24%)
87,800 Azerbaijanis (73%)

So throughout the 19th century we see overwhelming majority of Azerbaijanis in Karabakh, but it is falling each year. Not because of natural reasons but due to influx of Armenians being settled into Karabakh.

1897 - from the Russian Imperial Census:

109,250 Armenians (39.5%)
164,098 Azerbaijanis (59.5%)

Population of 3 uezds: Shusha, Javanshir & Jebrayil, represented all of Nagorno-Karabakh and some lowland Karabakh. As you can see Azerbaijanis majority is falling each year....

Since it was the Russian IMPERIAL census, one of the population categories that all Western historians have overlooked is that of the "hereditary nobles," which represents a strong proof of which ethnic group resided in Shusha uezd & city in larger numbers for generations.

the category of "hereditary nobles" is important because it directly shows who lived on that land longer. It's easy to settle a bunch of peasants to an area, but harder to settle nobles & gift/sell them plots of land. That's why this census category is so interesting....

Thus, in 1897 census for Karabakh/Shusha, there were:

1,987 hereditary nobles of Armenian origin (28.5%)
5,033 hereditary nobles of Azerbaijani origin (71.5%)

Keep in mind previous tweet: Armenian peasants were 39.5% while Azerbaijani peasants were 59.5%.

Hence smaller group of Armenian nobles controlled larger number of peasants while larger group of Azerbaijani nobles somehow had less peasants. This was because Azerbaijani nobles were being stripped of their privileges while more Armenian peasants were settled into Karabakh.

February 11, 1919 article “Karabakh” in the newspaper “Azerbaijan” by a Russian analyst A.S.Shepotyev cites:

179,000 Armenians
415,000 Azerbaijanis

This is for entire Karabakh region.

The August 18, 1920 article in the newspaper “Kommunist” refers to the population estimates for the entire Karabakh area:

100,000 Armenians
400,000 Azerbaijanis

1925 - Armenak Karakozov, an ethnic Armenian official who at the time was chairman of NKAO, sent a telegram, acknowledging that nearly entire Azerbaijani population of Jevanshir uezd fled from Karabakh to escape massacres. Note the date - next year in 1926 the 1st Soviet census

indeed, by 1926 Soviet census - first Soviet census - the Azerbaijani population of the Armenian-drawn NKAO was reduced - through massacres & gerrymandering - to just 10%.

However, Azerbaijanis were a super-majority of 91.7% (21,234 of 23,156 total) in the Shusha district (with 7% or 1,620 Armenians) and 98% in the city of Shusha itself according to the 1989 census. Despite that they were ethnically cleansed & not allowed to return home since 1992

again A.S.Shepotyev, in his article "Karabakh," in Russian, in the "Azerbaijan" newspaper, February 11, 1919:

"From one side, the Armenian population of Karabakh constitutes an indisputable minority, and moreover, a minority concentrated on a narrow, intermittent streak of

the mountainous region, not constituting an unbroken mass, surrounded from all sides by an uninterrupted Turkic population, economically and historically broken from further centers of Armenian population in the Armenian Republic. On the other side,

if the mountainous gorges between the lowlands and the mountain pastures area will end up in alien hands, then the entire existence of Azerbaijani Turks in Karabakh will be under mortal danger, as it is enough to lock them up [the gorges] for the population of the lowland to die"

Thus, 19th century population censuses & counts showed that Azerbaijanis were in majority in Karabakh. Only thanks to gerrymandering in the 20th century were Azerbaijanis deliberately made a "minority" by Armenians who drew borders of artificial entity called Nagorno-Karabakh.