Trinh Profile picture
19 Oct, 7 tweets, 3 min read
In one hour, we get China GDP for Q3 & expectations of a bounce from Q2. The question is whether its demand side of growth will be as good & so eyes on September retail sales (exps 1.6%YoY from 0.5%YoY in August).

US retail sales +5.4%YoY for September & V-shaped in recovery.
Odds for Trump rising again & here are the latest polls. With US data strong (US retail sales beat), less pressure on stimulus although let's not forget that was the past & so still key. Pelosi sets a Tuesday deadline. Let's see!
US data surprise index rising as actual exceeds expectations.
China GDP lower than expected at 4.9%YoY but retail sales for September bounced to 3.3%YoY from 1.6%.
Where are we? We are here (or shall I say we were here in September):

China retail sales improving to +3.3%YoY
US retail sales also bouncing to +5.4%YoY!

Not bad.
Don't fret China's worse than expected GDP of +4.9%YoY:

a) Still a good number & frankly GDP is lagging (we're in October & having data that has July, August & September is pretty much old news)
b) Retail sales bouncing is good news.

The US & China showing recovering of demand!
Details of retail sales: the good news is that consumer goods are improving & even eating out is less negative. Auto was strong too at +11.2%YoY

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More from @Trinhnomics

20 Oct
Not quite: electric cars by definition needs electricity & let's look on where Hong Kong gets its electricity from:

Coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy. Lama Power Station of HEC & Castle Peak Power Station of CLP are the two power plants that generate electricity by coal.

🤷🏻‍♀️
If you think driving an electric car makes you totally renewable, then here's the news: YOU NEED ELECTRICITY.

Sources of electricity in America: Natural gas (38%); Coal (23%); Nuclear 20%) & Renewable (17%). Image
Most electricity is derived from, wait for it: fossil fuel!!!

Hong Kong uses COAL for most of its electricity generation! Yes, true story.
Read 21 tweets
20 Oct
"Buy land, they are not making it anymore."

Mark Twain

May I add buy prime land like coastal California. You can always count on the politicians + residents to be voting for more regulations to limit supply. How do I know? I'm from California & invest their. A good call so far.
With the government inept, local & national, & with lock-downs introduced as gov couldn't prevent a pandemic & shuts down local economic activities, people INVEST more in real estate as it's the only place they can control.

But if you think humans are rational, u're wrong.
While the land & property owners are rational & lobby properly & the politicians act accordingly with adding more regulations to limit access to lower supply & raise prices, the people NOT owning property CONSISTENTLY ACT AGAINST THEIR OWN INTERESTS.

Watch how millennials vote.
Read 10 tweets
20 Oct
Watch direct investment by Singaporean firms (also Japanese, Taiwanese & South Koreans). They understand Asia and usually ahead of the game. The Singaporeans bought up Vietnam real estate at the height of the crisis circa 2011-2012 & got some good deals & that was a good call.
The question we have to ask is that whether Indonesia could ever be a story that is not just domestic demand but rather one that is rising in participation of global value chain and more outward.

When was the last time you bought something that is Made in Indonesia?
Elephant in the room is India (a sleepy giant in term of FDI but more awake than Indonesia). India is a favorite for portfolio investors (see valuation of equities and also even bonds). That said, needs to be more outward.

When was the last time u bought something Made in India?
Read 5 tweets
15 Oct
Is this even constitutional? The West has lost the plot.
Another funny Covid-19 news today, the day that Xi & Carrie talk about the Greater Bay Area (HK, Macao, Shenzhen) & no announcement of integration & travel bubble, and wait for it, Hong Kong announces a travel bubble with: SINGAPORE! Singapore before Shenzhen or Macao! 1 country!
Over the summer, the UK & Europe didn't do much containing & controlling & a lot of people just did whatever they wanted like life was normal. Got friends going to Spain, Italy etc posting pics mass gathering w/o masks. No enforcement of quarantine. Now they control private homes
Read 10 tweets
15 Oct
The best things about going to a physical bookstore vs online is that you can see the whole collection, from topic to topic, versus online an algo tells you what you'd like. As in, there's a sense of discovery & freedom in visiting a physical bookstore & u meet other bookworms.
When I was a child, I loved visiting my local public library & when that got too small I would take the bus downtown to visit the big library with all those books. You don't even have to pay! At UCLA, Borders on Westwood was a fav. I'd spend my Saturdays there, reading all sorts.
I'd read the architecture, economic & social affairs magazines & then peruse the classics in sociology, psychology, economics & venture to other topics. I attended many events at that Borders, including meeting Frank McCourt, my fav, & meet other people that live in Westwood area
Read 13 tweets
13 Oct
The best way to see America's future is to look at increasingly stressed, depressed, and lonely Americans. They used to be fit, happy, and confident. Fast forward to 2020, they're more angry, less healthy & increasingly irrational.

The center has collapsed & fringe rising. Why?
Hard to point to the reason why but I reckon it has to do with the distribution of wealth & erosion of fundamental American values in the past several decades -the destruction of small businesses, rise of large corporations, esp tech & rise of costs of living & limited mobility.
Chart below is nominal GDP (look at California and how it dwarfs everyone else). We have four states > 1trn in nominal GDP and 8> 0.5trn in GDP. Coastal = tend to be benefiting from US globalization, "fly-over" states less.

Let's look at this taking into account population.
Read 33 tweets

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