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19 Oct, 19 tweets, 5 min read
Yup. Or even, as I keep saying, does the PM want "this" deal? And I've had a lot of conversations on that in the last few days, nearly all of them move from the content and talk instead of his personality. Wants to be the hero to everyone. Isn't possible. So how does he decide?
If you assume the PM will create a heroic narrative deal or no-deal, that isn't really the basis of his decision. The real world impact of different UK and EU positions on issues is fairly slim. But can the PM more easily survive trade chaos or Brexit backbench dissent? That...
Getting closer but still annoyingly missing key points. The UK does not have full freedom on subsidies anyway because of WTO rules (and other trade deals we will sign). And there's much more to the PM's decision e.g. obvious u-turn on Northern Ireland itv.com/news/2020-10-1…
Feels like a never ending task to correct misperceptions on trade deals. That isn't about whether you want 'a' deal (always, you might not want 'this' deal), that it always goes to the wire, that insulting the other side is necessary for domestic support etc.
Last stage of negotiation is usually the internal one - here's the deal, can we go with it or not, what more can we offer, or do we need. In a good environment the two negotiators help each other. Slightly unusual when the main negotiation is between the PM and himself mind.
This.
Back to you UK. Oh, and by the way, what was the problem you claimed? Elegant and childish at the same time.
Incidentally "based on legal texts" really could mean absolutely anything, since both sides submitted drafts months ago you could argue that has already been happening. Obviously some issues with the talks we don't know, but it all seems rather overblown.
UK making a drama in the hope of dramatic concessions it knows probably unlikely and while waiting for the PM to make the decision on whether it is deal or not? Best guess anyway.
Oh well, back to work apparently after a rather pointless few days interlude. Not that the EU have (as far as I can see) said work would start on texts, just talks based on texts. Since we're playing with words. Who knows, really?
None of these pretend UK-EU skirmishes will matter whatsoever when it comes to the management of any deal, when the UK government has to withdraw Internal Market bill clauses, accept trade deal constraints, and say to the ERG deal better than no-deal. We wait that moment...
Oh. Stalemate again. And this is a challenge the EU fundamentally cannot meet (not ones for fundamentally changing approach for good or bad)
The "sovereign equals" garbage again. A test as easy or difficult to meet as you want, since its so meaningless.
Initial thought is that I'm not sure there is any longer a path to a UK-EU deal. The UK on consideration decided not to claim a win and get back to talks. Hard for the EU to now go further. Worth going back to my thread Saturday on how we got here.
I think the reaction of the EU side to this tweet is to shrug, offer to continue, but change nothing because the UK's criteria is so vague there is nothing you can do to be confident you can meet it.
Worth recalling that one of the reasons trade talks normally start with an agreed vision between the two parties is to avoid stand-offs. In this case the EU is using the Political Declaration notioally agreed with the UK, and the UK "Canada" meaning whatever we want. Fragile.
This is a fear shared by many of us who have followed the Brexit roller-coaster of the last few years.
This might be the hope of some in government. But the source overestimates impact on the public for whom such tactics now bore, and underestimates impact on the negotiations and backbenchers of spreading poison that must be extracted again to get a deal.
Last one for now. However bad things seem no trade negotiation is ever declared dead until those involved have said that repeatedly for many years - we're not there yet. But time passes and negotiating realities are unchanged, so unless the UK government changes tack...

No deal.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
20 Oct
It needs a decent length article to explain everything that has happened in UK-EU talks in the last few days, and what might come next, and @BBCkatyaadler obliges. bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
The funny version of UK-EU talks progress...
Anyway, where we are in talks today is that for a deal the UK will have to compromise on state aid, the Internal Market Bill, and governance, and the EU on fish. Its where we were this time last week, and three months ago. The EU will do this, will the UK? The rest is noise.
Read 11 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Oct
I'd expect it will be a slow road back to a UK-EU deal in the event of no-deal this year, would require the politics to change significantly, since it would have been UK politcs, not the content of a trade deal, that would have defeated a deal.
As for UK demands for talks to resume, they are easy to meet if the UK wishes to declare them met. Or not if not. The majority view in the EU is that the UK is talking to itself and please let us know if you move beyond that.
Incidentally anyone want to hazard a guess at the number of developed countries globally who do not have or are not currently negotiating a trade deal with neighbouring countries?
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Oct
Even church leaders are not immune from the Brexit cult that accuses those who with a different opinion of being divisive (and quite often, though not in this case, unpatriotic traitors). theguardian.com/world/2020/oct…
The relationship between a centralising government which struggles to deal with anyone else (e.g. Manchester, Scotland, London, the EU), and the pure Brexit cult for whom nothing (church, international law, economy) comes before hostility to the EU, is a dangerous one indeed.
A good example of the kind of nonsense currently coming from the pure Brexit cult (who let us recall right now want to break the Withdrawal Agreement and start a trade war with the EU). Encouraged by the UK government blaming the EU.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
18 Oct
Wise. The idea that it is necessary to firm up domestic support by insulting the other side of a negotiation is being heavily overhyped in the Brexit debate. Just as likely you talk yourself out of a possible deal.
Goes alongside the most often stated fact about trade talks, that it is either overhyped at outright wrong, that the EU or anyone else only does trade deals at the last minute. For which there is no evidence however often it is repeated as fact.
There's a role in trade talks for showing toughness, as there is for deadlines. In moderation. Ultimately it is about the red lines of both sides. Plus the surrounding mood music. And we still don't know in the case of UK-EU, because we don't know where UK red lines are.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
18 Oct
True. Which leads to the bigger political problem. If you imagine all that border friction at Dover, how do you think it is avoided on trade between Britain and Northern Ireland? Answer, as we know, is that a deal doesn't remove that issue.
There's also a second political issue, which is the anticipation that a deal leads to further smaller deals to ease border controls. Which is exactly what the Brexit ultras will fear about a deal, a gradual return to the EU's orbit.
I don't think most of the Brexit commentary understands that there is a set of UK decisions approaching in which some will lose out (deja vu for the DUP perhaps). So we need to ask who they are going to be. The ERG? Business?
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
18 Oct
Always a very powerful argument to claim that your neighbours or some other country want to restrict you. Also happens to be a line particularly popular with paranoid dictatorships. And a discouragement to business or said neighbouring countries to deal with you.
Maybe at some stage the government could be asked, who wants to control us more, the EU wanting us to sign up for level playing field conditions, or the US wanting us to sign up for food rules (and by the way level playing field conditions).
Another question for government - in what exact ways do the EU want us to forfeit our independence? How do these differ from, for example, WTO rules? And what rules are we prepared to sign up for?
Read 9 tweets

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