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20 Oct, 17 tweets, 5 min read
It needs a decent length article to explain everything that has happened in UK-EU talks in the last few days, and what might come next, and @BBCkatyaadler obliges. bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
The funny version of UK-EU talks progress...
Anyway, where we are in talks today is that for a deal the UK will have to compromise on state aid, the Internal Market Bill, and governance, and the EU on fish. Its where we were this time last week, and three months ago. The EU will do this, will the UK? The rest is noise.
(It is reasonable to think much of the UK's performance art with regard to EU talks is to cover up the PM's failure to make a decision on whether to go for the deal or not, rather than to show toughness. We still wait.)
Difficult to reach mutual deals if you neither understand nor care about the other side, and just wish to impose your view.
Worth a reminder that if and when the PM decides he wants the EU deal on offer a massive selling job is going to have to start with the Brexit ultras including many on the backbenches. No sign yet, and no sign of a desire to do so. Biggest obstacle to a deal by far.
An incredibly important point - nobody in the UK actively *wants* the EU deal on offer except insofar as being not as bad as something else. A difficult basis to sell a deal.
This might even understate the difficulties.
The divorcing couple schedule another call to decide whether it really is final or they should give it one last go...
Where "if the EU fundamentally changes their approach and make clear they have done so" can best be interpreted to mean "if the UK government chooses to keep talking". Incidentally we could have a deal today if the PM wanted (aka 'political agreement')

There are no fundamental issues to be resolved in UK-EU talks, just is the UK willing to agree constraints in return for zero tariffs, and accept the Northern Ireland protocol stands as is. The EU already agreed to drop maximalist demands on fish and LPF.
Terse. And not exactly screaming "yes UK you can have whatever you want".
We appear to be in a stand-off over the UK ask that the EU show a fundamental change of approach, which no negotiator should ever demand as it cannot be met without loss of face.

Dismal.

Sorry to say that right now the UK government is blocking any path to an EU deal. Just as the UK side need to manage tricky domestic stakeholders, so does the EU, and right now those stakeholders think the UK is playing silly games.
By this stage if approaching a trade deal the lead negotiators should be helping their counterpart deal with domestic difficulties. Instead last week both sides made things worse for the other, and this week the UK have continued the slide. Something needs to change quickly.
Yup, that sounds like the plan. But the EU can't and won't make the choice between deal and no-deal for the PM. He has to make it, and has enough information to do so. Trouble is it wasn't the choice he wanted.
As I suggested the response from the EU side to the UK. Not positive.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
21 Oct
Personally not seeing a huge difference to anything said in the last week, but if the UK government wants to claim victory and restart talks, fine by me.
Trouble is each round of sovereign toughness makes that ultimate claim of victory harder to believe particularly with those who are hoping the UK government really means it.
Pretty uncompromising position from an influential MEP.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Oct
Really not sure giving the UK government a PR victory against Brexit partisans is an EU strength, on the basis of history. Best left to the UK side for good and bad.
What about the EU being more generous with the UK on rules of origin for cars? If you're the EU, suspect you'd think, won't make much of a difference to talks with the UK, but might affect other trade talks. So don't bother. ft.com/content/720671…
But shouldn't an FTA be about what is good for the economy?

Category error. Just as Brexit wasn't about putting the economy first, so the EU don't either in FTAs (and nor do the UK). Politics first, economics some way behind.
Read 11 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Oct
I'd expect it will be a slow road back to a UK-EU deal in the event of no-deal this year, would require the politics to change significantly, since it would have been UK politcs, not the content of a trade deal, that would have defeated a deal.
As for UK demands for talks to resume, they are easy to meet if the UK wishes to declare them met. Or not if not. The majority view in the EU is that the UK is talking to itself and please let us know if you move beyond that.
Incidentally anyone want to hazard a guess at the number of developed countries globally who do not have or are not currently negotiating a trade deal with neighbouring countries?
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Oct
Yup. Or even, as I keep saying, does the PM want "this" deal? And I've had a lot of conversations on that in the last few days, nearly all of them move from the content and talk instead of his personality. Wants to be the hero to everyone. Isn't possible. So how does he decide?
If you assume the PM will create a heroic narrative deal or no-deal, that isn't really the basis of his decision. The real world impact of different UK and EU positions on issues is fairly slim. But can the PM more easily survive trade chaos or Brexit backbench dissent? That...
Getting closer but still annoyingly missing key points. The UK does not have full freedom on subsidies anyway because of WTO rules (and other trade deals we will sign). And there's much more to the PM's decision e.g. obvious u-turn on Northern Ireland itv.com/news/2020-10-1…
Read 19 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Oct
Even church leaders are not immune from the Brexit cult that accuses those who with a different opinion of being divisive (and quite often, though not in this case, unpatriotic traitors). theguardian.com/world/2020/oct…
The relationship between a centralising government which struggles to deal with anyone else (e.g. Manchester, Scotland, London, the EU), and the pure Brexit cult for whom nothing (church, international law, economy) comes before hostility to the EU, is a dangerous one indeed.
A good example of the kind of nonsense currently coming from the pure Brexit cult (who let us recall right now want to break the Withdrawal Agreement and start a trade war with the EU). Encouraged by the UK government blaming the EU.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
18 Oct
Wise. The idea that it is necessary to firm up domestic support by insulting the other side of a negotiation is being heavily overhyped in the Brexit debate. Just as likely you talk yourself out of a possible deal.
Goes alongside the most often stated fact about trade talks, that it is either overhyped at outright wrong, that the EU or anyone else only does trade deals at the last minute. For which there is no evidence however often it is repeated as fact.
There's a role in trade talks for showing toughness, as there is for deadlines. In moderation. Ultimately it is about the red lines of both sides. Plus the surrounding mood music. And we still don't know in the case of UK-EU, because we don't know where UK red lines are.
Read 4 tweets

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