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Liam Donovan Profile picture
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19 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
This gives away the game right here. If Trump can't bring Rs along for whatever deal he cuts, McConnell is incidental.
This isn't hard
Again, McConnell is not the issue. The fact that he introduced a $1T bill months ago that failed to launch because the President didn't lean in should have been a hint.
At the end of the day, this is what it comes down to

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More from @LPDonovan

Liam Donovan Profile picture
21 Oct
Trump carried 226 CDs in 2016. The (once-clear) path to the majority was predicated on consolidating the 29 of them Dems hold in nominal Trump country. Dems are now favored in 228.
Which goes back to this...
At this point you could probably count them on one hand.
Read 4 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
3 Oct
All else aside, and suspending disbelief for a moment--the first minute. That guy, with that tone, dedicated to that message, could climb back in this race before it spirals out of control.
You can get mad about it or you can heed the caveats--even the glimmer of humanity and humility in the early going is eclipsed by the rambling tangent that follows; we know there's no other Trump besides the one we know; and the wheels are going wobbly either way.
I've been talking/thinking through how this could offer any upside or silver lining, and it always comes back to yes, but it would require a normal human in a Trump suit. Which is why these sorts of moments are disarming. Goes back to something I raised on the debate preview pod.
Read 4 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
1 Oct
Looks like Dems are making NOL rollback a requirement to get to a deal. Good way to make sure nothing happens regardless of the topline.
When the topline numbers get too close for comfort, just shift gears from arithmetic to abstraction. It's not about money, it's about values.
I'll just put this thread here
Read 4 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
15 Sep
Yeah, the biggest shock of all this has been how little things have changed amid profound upheaval in every facet of our lives.
Which goes back to this point--we have largely taken these seismic events and fit them into our existing worldview.
OTOH, that 3pt shift in the popular vote is the difference between an electoral rout and a nailbiter, so even marginal movement is huge.
Read 4 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
15 Sep
No idea where this goes, but a good reminder that nobody wants to be seen as the ones walking away.
lol well that's different politico.com/news/2020/09/1… Image
🤔 ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
14 Sep
About half of the respondents here think Trump will need 48% in the tipping point states to win. Another ~1/4 said 49% or more. Just 27% think he could sneak by with less. Something to keep in mind as we focus on margins over vote share/undecideds.
As a refresher, Trump won each of these with pluralities--third party share in (). Top 3 normal enough. The rest had some extraordinary dynamics lowering the threshold for victory.

NC 49.8 (4)
FL 48.6 (4)
PA 48.2 (4.4)
AZ 48.1 (7.4)
MI 47.3 (5.8)
WI 47.2 (6.3)
UT 45.1 (27.8!!)
Even more stark if you compare to other recent cycles
Read 6 tweets

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