Again, McConnell is not the issue. The fact that he introduced a $1T bill months ago that failed to launch because the President didn't lean in should have been a hint.
Trump carried 226 CDs in 2016. The (once-clear) path to the majority was predicated on consolidating the 29 of them Dems hold in nominal Trump country. Dems are now favored in 228.
All else aside, and suspending disbelief for a moment--the first minute. That guy, with that tone, dedicated to that message, could climb back in this race before it spirals out of control.
You can get mad about it or you can heed the caveats--even the glimmer of humanity and humility in the early going is eclipsed by the rambling tangent that follows; we know there's no other Trump besides the one we know; and the wheels are going wobbly either way.
I've been talking/thinking through how this could offer any upside or silver lining, and it always comes back to yes, but it would require a normal human in a Trump suit. Which is why these sorts of moments are disarming. Goes back to something I raised on the debate preview pod.
About half of the respondents here think Trump will need 48% in the tipping point states to win. Another ~1/4 said 49% or more. Just 27% think he could sneak by with less. Something to keep in mind as we focus on margins over vote share/undecideds.
As a refresher, Trump won each of these with pluralities--third party share in (). Top 3 normal enough. The rest had some extraordinary dynamics lowering the threshold for victory.
NC 49.8 (4)
FL 48.6 (4)
PA 48.2 (4.4)
AZ 48.1 (7.4)
MI 47.3 (5.8)
WI 47.2 (6.3)
UT 45.1 (27.8!!)
Even more stark if you compare to other recent cycles