Thread by @unseen1_unseen

I'm not saying this will happen. I'm not saying this is true. However, if the vote directly matched the +6 shift from dem to rep(+5D to+1R) Gallup is picking up in party affiliation (which it usually doesn't), but if it did then this would be the EC result of a 6pt move from 2016

Usually what happens is that the independents move in the same way to a lesser degree which means you have a dampened move not the full 6pt move. So when you factor that in you get about a 2-3pt total move in actual votes. (NM is special due to 3rd party vote in 2016) or this:

But....I don't really care about that... I'll be happy with this

or this:

or this

or this

or this