Think about it. In the last 4 years Trump has never had an opportunity to speak for 2 minutes without the press interrupting him during a press conference. In the townhall last week NBC interrupted him constantly and Wallace did the same in the debate.
then on the other side you have Joe having to speak complete sentences for 2 minutes. I watched the dem debates. He can't do it. He'll start talking about leaving the record player on or something.
finally if it's a split screen Trump can use body language and facial expressions which he is very good at to counter what Biden is saying. While Biden has never shown an ability to do that.
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People love to use the argument that the polls are correct because there is no way millions of Americans would lie to pollsters.....They conveniently forget that the average sample size of a poll is 1000 people not a million. Therefore, it would only take 10 people to lie for 1%
of the poll to be in error. 20 people= 2% and so on. I can tell you if you get 1,000 people together finding ten liars or shitposters is a very easy thing to do. In other words, in the age of the online troll, not to mention the Dem bullies in ANTIFA and BLM its very easy to
to see 50 or 100 people lying, trolling or too afraid to give a truthful response. You don't need millions, you need only a handful of people not telling the truth for whatever reason and the poll is worthless.
Air Force One now on the ground in PA. The Immune One getting ready for another barn burning peaceful protest..
.Live: Trump campaigns in Erie, Pennsylvania via @YouTube
Not live tweeting this one. Got my popcorn and beverage ready to go. Should be great. I'll tweet anything major but Trump has a way of sucking me into tweeting most of the rally....Will try to resist to tonight.
I feel for those people that have to listen to political ads. But, I'm not one of them. Besides a few Trump ads I choose to watch, I've yet to see/hear more than a couple political ads this season. I don't have cable. I hit the "skip ads" button on youtube. My eyes don't notice
..the banner ads on the web. I pause Iheart radio at the top and bottom of the hour when listenig to the radio. Not to skip the ads but to skip the fake news. Twitter ads are a joke that are quickly forgotten. Who would pay to advertise on Twitter? Seriously?
One of the best and least reported aspects of the technology revolution is the ability to avoid all advertisements not just political ads with limited energy expanded. While I do remember some great ads from my youth, the few I do see today are stupid & lack any imagination.
Since EV is a big topic, I want to point out something. We don't have a national election. We have 50 state elections. There are reasons people vote a certain way in the states they live. It's not a one size fit all. Some states have more historical voter fraud than others
For instance, in 2016 in NC ,Trump and all GOP state office holders were winning....then at the very end Durham county (dem stronghold) came from nowhere and dumped 10,000+ votes. Flipping the race for most of the state GOP office holders to dems. Trump was winning
...at a higher % then the state GOP office holders because they were more Bush/establishment types so Trump was able to hold off that late "vote dump". Burr also was able to hold it off. The thing is if NC GOP votes early the dems know how many votes they need to dump.
I'm not saying this will happen. I'm not saying this is true. However, if the vote directly matched the +6 shift from dem to rep(+5D to+1R) Gallup is picking up in party affiliation (which it usually doesn't), but if it did then this would be the EC result of a 6pt move from 2016
Usually what happens is that the independents move in the same way to a lesser degree which means you have a dampened move not the full 6pt move. So when you factor that in you get about a 2-3pt total move in actual votes. (NM is special due to 3rd party vote in 2016) or this:
But....I don't really care about that... I'll be happy with this
Reminder. Trump won WI, MI, PA and almost won MN because democrats voted for him. It would be stupid to think every democrat ballot is a Biden vote. The same can be said for every republican vote. Further, in states like NC and KY dems
..have been voting for the GOP in national elections for decades while voting for democrats at the state and local levels. It wasn't until the tea party of 2010 that those same democrats started to vote for the gop at the state and local elections.
Polls tend to show that on average a gop candidate gets about 10% crossover from the Dems and the Dem candidate gets about 10% of the gop crossing over NATIONALLY. That doesn't take into account individual states that have a different history. Not to mention independents.