Thread by @djjohnso

Is 2020 still competitive (RCP) or not really (538)?

2016
Actual Ntnl: Clinton +2.1
RCP Final: Clinton +3.2 (D+1.1)
538 Final: Clinton +3.9 (D+1.8)

2018
Actual House Ntnl: D+8.6%
RCP Final: D+7.3 (R+1.3)
538 Final (polls only): D+10.2 (D+1.6)

Avg Bias
RCP R+0.1%
538 D+1.7%

Look, let's be honest:

If Biden is up

4% in Arizona and Florida
6.5% in Pennsylvania
8%, on average, in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan

And within a whisker of Texas

Then 538 is actually being generous when it gives Trump a 12% chance of winning.

If, on the other hand:

Biden is up only:

1.5% in Florida
3% in Arizona
3.8% in Pennsylvania
5.2% in Nevada

And an average of 6.5% in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin

While:

Trump leads Texas by 4.4%

Uncertainty remains reasonably large:

(For RCP, I have used their basic map by shaded Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan light blue because Biden has a lead of 5.5% or greater per RCP in those states.)