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#10at10 No. 48
2020 Dem Primary Rankings
Full Delegate Proj.➡️Super Tues:
wp.me/P7gBVo-yC

-Warren up 15 delgs., Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg down 7, 7, and 1 respectively
-Sanders now within 0.4% of Biden in polling v. Trump avg., closest in my tracking over a year Image
#10at10 No. 49
2020 Dem Primary Rankings
Full Delegate Proj.➡️Super Tues:
wp.me/P7gBVo-yC

-At 1.1 pt deficit, closest Sanders has been to Biden (also -1.1 Apr 1)
-Bloomberg steadily rising
-Deleg count hidden, updates tonight (IA NH NV SC), throughout week (Super Tues) Image
#10at10 No. 50
2020 Dem Primary Rankings
Full Delegate Proj.➡️Super Tues:
(Updating tonight)
wp.me/P7gBVo-yC

-Sanders takes the lead in polling, delegates, and overall rank for first time going back to Jan. 2019
-Full Delg. Projection later tonight (could move a few) Image
Delegate Model Update Feb 10
#10at10 2020 Dem Primary
Proj. -> through Super Tues
Full: wp.me/P7gBVo-yC
(complete tomorrow a.m.)

(Change over Jan 6)
Sanders 661 (+162)
Biden 633 (+6)
Warren 175 (-142)
Klobuchar 18 (+1)
Buttigieg 11 (+2)
Steyer 1 (+1)
Yang 0 (-1) Image
#10at10 New Hampshire
Final Projection
Dem Primary
Feb 10, 2020

Sanders 27.4% (11 Deleg.)
Buttigieg 22.4 (9)
Biden 13.3 (2)
Warren 12.7 (2)
Klobuchar 11.7 (0) Image
#10at10 No. 51
2020 Dem Primary Rankings
Full Delegate Proj.➡️Super Tues:
wp.me/P7gBVo-yC (full update soon-ish)

-Sanders opens us 10pt lead in wake of #NHPrimary
-6 candidates better than "undecided"
-Delegate projection requires hours of work to include Bloomberg Image
#10at10 Nevada
Democratic Primary
Final Projection
Feb 21

Sanders 32.1% (19 Delegates)
Warren 15.7 (8)
Biden 15.4 (8)
Buttigieg 13.7 (1)
Steyer 9.5 (0) Image
Here was the Iowa final call (which wasn't in the thread here otherwise). https://t.co/vAolgZVQ0j
#10at10 Nevada
Democratic Caucus
Strict Poll Avg
Final Feb 21

Sanders 33.5%
Buttigieg 15.3
Biden 13.7
Warren 12.7
Steyer 10.4
Klobuchar 8.0
Gabbard 2.5 Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
#NevadaCaucus
Strict Poll Avg
Final Feb 22

Sanders 34.5%
Buttigieg 15.3
Biden 14.4
Warren 12.4
Steyer 9.6
Klobuchar 8.0
Gabbard 2.5

(Now includes final day of Data for Progress poll) Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
#NevadaCaucuses
Final Projection
Feb 22

Sanders 32.1% (20 Delegates)
Warren 15.7 (8)
Biden 15.4 (7)
Buttigieg 13.7 (1)
Steyer 9.6 (0)

Thanks to @AstorAaron for catching an error in CD-2 where Biden is not at 15% threshold. Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
South Carolina
(+ 1st 4 Delegate Total
-see bottom row)
FINAL Projection
#DemDebates #SCPrimary

Biden 35.0% (33 Delegates; 48 1st 4)
Sanders 20.4 (19; 64)
Steyer 13.3 (2; 2)
Buttigieg 10.5 (0; 26)
Warren 8.3 (0; 8) Image
#10at10 Strict Average
#SouthCarolina
Democratic Primary
FINAL Feb 29

Biden 36.7%
Sanders 20.1
Steyer 13.4
Buttigieg 9.5
Warren 7.7

-1 of 3 major factors (relation to national polling/2016 being another and demographics being the final) in the overall #10at10 SC projection Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
ALABAMA
#SuperTuesday2020
Final Projection

Biden 48.5% (30 Delegates)
Sanders 24.1 (15)
Bloomberg 14.9 (7)
Warren 9.5 (0) Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
ARKANSAS
#SuperTuesday2020
Final Projection

Biden 32.2% (14 Delegates)
Sanders 23.3 (11)
Bloomberg 17.1 (6)
Warren 10.7 (0) Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
COLORADO
#SuperTuesday2020
Final Projection

Sanders 32.6% (33 Delegates)
Biden 18.4 (19)
Warren 15.0 (14)
Bloomberg 13.9 (1) Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
CALIFORNIA
#SuperTuesday2020
Final Projection

-alphabetizing ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Sanders 37.3% (205 Delegates)
Biden 22.3 (125)
Warren 16.3 (85)
Bloomberg 12.2 (0) ImageImage
#10at10 Dem Primary
MAINE
#SuperTuesday2020
Final Projection

Sanders 34.5% (10 Delegates)
Biden 24.9 (8)
Warren 15.2 (6)
Bloomberg 13.1 (0) Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
MASSACHUSETTS
#SuperTuesday2020
Final Projection

Sanders 30.1% (38 Delegates)
Warren 26.3 (31)
Biden 19.4 (22)
Bloomberg 12.8 (0) Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
MINNESOTA
#SuperTuesday2020
Final Projection

Sanders 36.6% (42 Delegates)
Warren 19.0 (22)
Biden 14.7 (11) Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
NORTH CAROLINA
#SuperTuesday2020
Final Projection

Sanders 31.2% (54 Delegates)
Biden 31.2 (52)
Bloomberg 14.3 (4)
Warren 11.0 (0) Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
OKLAHOMA
#SuperTuesday2020
Final Projection

Sanders 28.2% (15 Delegates)
Biden 25.6 (13)
Bloomberg 17.2 (9)
Warren 10.3 (0) Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
TENNESSEE
#SuperTuesday2020
Final Projection

Biden 37.6% (29 Delegates)
Sanders 27.4 (22)
Bloomberg 17.5 (12)
Warren 10.7 (1) Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
TEXAS
#SuperTuesday2020
Final Projection

Sanders 29.3% (98 Delegates)
Biden 27.2 (84)
Bloomberg 15.2 (39)
Warren 12.7 (7) Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
UTAH
#SuperTuesday2020
Final Projection

Sanders 39.5% (20 Delegates)
Biden 18.0 (9)
Warren 13.6 (0)
Bloomberg 11.2 Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
VIRGINIA
#SuperTuesday2020
Final Projection

Biden 28.8% (37 Delegates)
Sanders 26.0 (37)
Bloomberg 17.8 (25)
Warren 10.4 Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
VERMONT
#SuperTuesday2020
Final Projection

Sanders 56.3% (13)
Biden 14.5 (3)
Bloomberg 10.9 (0)
Warren 9.6 Image
#10at10 Dem Primary
ALL STATES through
#SuperTuesday2020
FINAL Delegate Proj.

Sanders 675 (+14)
Biden 519 (-114)
Warren 175 (=)
Bloomberg 103 (NEW)
Buttigieg 25 (+15)
Klobuchar 1 (-17)

(Am Samoa: Biden 3 Sanders 2 Warren 1)
State by State (thread)
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Doug Johnson Hatlem
@djjohnso
1/ Analyses of precinct data in NH suggest risk that fractional counting by machine may have moved results by 3-5% of gap between Sanders and Buttigieg. @jvgraz recently discussed 2016 suspicions per Stanford study (see also my work in CP + w/EJUSA and @LuluFriesdat led study).
2/ We cannot draw a conclusion of suspicion about movement from precincts of 349 or less to 350-1999 for Sanders v. Buttigieg. Comparing hand v. scanner counts? Sanders just did better in smallest townships. (Klobuchar diff. *is* suspicious per multivariate regression analysis.)
3/ I worked with an Ivy League trained prof. who uses quantitative and qualitative data in his research. We controlled for several factors like wealth.

Our data frame: easyupload.io/kwg3v4

Wealth, importantly, only explains about 10% of the variance by precinct size:
Read 5 tweets
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Doug Johnson Hatlem
@djjohnso
Nate Silver remains the most sophisticated of the 8% of Democrats who have a very unfavorable dislike/hatred of Sanders. Watch what he is doing here. He's conceding lots to appear rational, but then he goes with a flat out falsehood. Bernie has don *a ton* to build coalitions.
Not only has he done a ton to build coalitions, but it shows in his numbers. He's 1st or 2nd in polling w/People of Color of a wide variety & overall (Biden #1 w/African Americans & overall, Sanders #2 for those & #1 w/ Latin Americans, tied for #1 w/ "other" per Morning Consult.
And this isn't a cherry-picked poll. It's based on five weeks of data in January and February, including more than 2000 POC respondents. Sanders coalition building goes well beyond improvements with POC, however ...
Read 7 tweets
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Doug Johnson Hatlem
@djjohnso
Can't stop laughing. Have a glorious day, FiveThirtyEight. If you can't help your disgust, you can't help your disgust. This is epic.

"Bernie Sanders is a famous, successful loser."

#NoOxygenForHate fivethirtyeight.com/features/berni…
And, true to form for these pieces for each candidate, a ton of stuff about his strengths, along with real potential weaknesses. But Malone can't help herself. Starts with "loser," ends with "Bernie Bros" while misstating how he apologized for sexual harassment on 2016 campaign.
(CNN gets it right in their more evenhanded, if still somewhat skeptical, article. Sanders gathered the women and men affected from the campaign and gave a "conciliatory" "honest apology".) cnn.com/2019/02/19/pol…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Dianna Glampers
@DiannaGlampers
So, I ran across a retweet of the below tweet and it immediately raised flags. Puffing up a witness has a reason, so decided to go look for the documentation behind it, since it had a direct quote. Didn't take long - few minutes and NPR coughed it up (will link at the end)./1
About puffing someone up - the reason is to try to give the person credibility, their views more weight than they should be given, and to set them above someone they are in disagreement with. In this case, also to elicit support due to his medal./2
In the case of the tweet, it is immediately followed by the statement "speaking out against the command-in-chief." (you're suppose to gasp here I think)

Then "the reason" is given - people kept telling him he needed to speak up (be sure to ignore other possible reasons)./3
Read 147 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
In data from @FiveThirtyEight and GDELT tracking, #Biden is leading TV mentions. This is pushing down poll numbers for other candidates.

Biden - 4,317
Sanders - 461
Warren - 1,090
Harris - 146
Buttigieg - 88
O'Rourke - 118
Booker - 142
Klobuchar - 47
Yang - 41
Castro - 21
These numbers should embarrass the MSM. #Harris is polling 4th yet she has less than 2% of #Biden's mentions, only 10% of #Warren's. #Buttigieg is polling right behind Harris and he has only half her mentions. Yet #Booker is almost equal to Harris. While #Castro--almost nothing.
The week showed a big drop in mentions for #Harris and #Sanders, despite high profile appearances for both on major TV shows. The disconnect is striking, particularly since both have rolled out new policy and important changes in their campaigns.
Read 6 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
HUGE.
#Biden & #Bernie continue to plummet. I wrote last month that #Buttigieg was the natural inheritor of voters divesting of Biden. #Warren is the natural inheritor of the left vote. #Harris, still the most charismatic candidate, has now tripled her Iowa standing since June.
This is the Democratic field. The debates both winnowed the field and reshuffled the deck. Despite massive help from MSM that included two full hours on Chris Cuomo in prime time, much spent attacking Harris and progressives, Biden fails to move his campaign forward.
Sanders has released a couple of videos vomosring himself to FDR, who was president when Sanders was born in 1941. Both Biden and Bernie focusing on the past while Harris and Warren roll out forward-thinking policy almost daily.

This is why the polls are shaking out as they are.
Read 4 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
THREAD
Response to #Biden skipping the California Dems is scathing.

Biden's "refusal to show up only reinforces the idea that he’s an elitist and he is more interested in collecting big checks in CA than being in genuine touch with grassroots activists."
usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
#Buttigieg and #Warren took Biden on.
Buttigieg said that "the riskiest thing we could do is try to play it safe.... In these times, Democrats can no more promise to take us back to the 2000s or 1990s than conservatives can take us back to the 1950s.”

usatoday.com/story/news/pol… …
#Warren: “Some Democrats in Washington believe the only changes we can get are tweaks & nudges.If they dream at all, they dream small.Some say if we’d all just calm down, Republicans will come to their senses. Our country is in a time of crisis. The time for small ideas is over.”
Read 9 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
So per @NBCNews, these are the latest fundraising rankings.
These are significant because #Warren is after #Sanders and #Harris in the polls where they rank 1st and 2nd (not counting Biden since he's not in) but her fundraising is below #Booker.
As these money rankings stay, Warren is in trouble for the debates like Castro and Gillibrand are because of the rules on how fundraising numbers = viability. Not making the debates would be terrible since #Warren & #Gillibrand are the most progressive & #Castro the only Latinx.
Also, these daily totals are averaged, but they aren't representative as a metric because all these candidates entered at different times & Sanders never stopped fundraising from 2016.
The question is, how much is no big donors hurting #Harris & #Warren?
Read 3 tweets

Trending hashtags

#GND #crimeoftheweek #TakeItBack #Medicaid4All #publicdefender #Dems #floridamanchallenge #epitomy #FalseNarratives #tweeted #Clues #Posterity #Harris #Liar #WRONG #color #Symbolism #CONFLUENCE #LOL #JESUSTAKETHEWHEEL #REPLY #SICK #ButtaBomma #ItsHappening #Lightyears

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