...European Commission just started raising first part of €88bn 10/20 year AAA debt on international markets to support 17 member states’ pandemic employment programmes - half going to Spain and Italy, as social bonds...
essentially deploys AAA credit of northern EU to help more fiscally challenged members - as was long argued about during eurozone crisis - and was cause of some UK concern as a member - “the appetiser” ahead of main course of €1 trillion issuance by 2026 ec.europa.eu/commission/com…
Example of EU moving ahead on pooling sovereignty more quickly than would have been the case had UK still been a member - Remains to be seen what proportion the ECB buys in secondary market - a sort of EU-wide QE. Bundesbank wants to make sure it’s a one off... but it’s happened.
Clearly we’ve had EU-wide QE before but this is an instrument which raises funds to be spent by Commission, subject to Council approval
some interesting questions here for UK outside this framework - any benefit from considering “green gilts” or “social gilts” given this level of demand, as long term borrowing. Probably not required right now given benign borrowing conditions - but something to ponder.
Definitely not immediately - still massive appetite for gov sov bonds, and central banks are swallowing up demand... EU establishing itself as a type of “sovereign” in the bond market just soaks up more of that demand. But it will be worth watching how yield and ratings compare
NEW - Chancellor doubles taxpayer support for wages to employers under Jobs Support Scheme, and cuts eligibility from a third of hours to a fifth - affects whole scheme, aimed at Tier 2, but not formally tied. UK wide.
Significant acknowledgement that large swathes of the economy are back in survival mode given rising infections, and not in restructure mode, which is what underpinned the original Winter Economic Plan...
A deal-making deal has been reached on “Organising principles for further negotiations with the EU” which may or may not lead to an actual deal: gov.uk/government/pub…
“most difficult” issues identifies as “LPF, governance, fisheries, energy and goods/services provisions” in the memo.
“For our part, we remain clear the best & most established means of regulating the relationship between two sovereign and autonomous parties is one based on a free trade agreement..”
Interesting No 10 statement - surely they mean “only” means of regulating is based on an FTA??
“Based on legal texts” seems a bit stronger though... but Frost clearly did not answer in the actual call with Barnier whether this was enough, and we await the presumably tweeted reply
ExPM-as-GIF content amply provided for by this cutaway of Theresa May responding to Gove arguing that no deal Brexit provides new opportunities for border protection/ security cooperation...
Government: “it’s a question of semantics at the end of the day, sure” on the use of the phrase “Australia-style terms” to describe no trade deal/ tariffs with EU - also was headline of the overnight press release
use of “Australia-terms” is even more puzzling, because it is obviously designed to reassure...
But actual point of campaign launched today is to get 10,000s of UK businesses to prepare & react.
Surely they want to say very directly “prepare for tariffs”...“prepare for checks”?
Similar issue Govt ad campaign, which some say looks more like kwik-fit tyre change ad - is Govt communicating this is a really big deal, potentially major business risk which will require weeks of prep? Or is it something you can sort out on the way back home from shops one Sat?
“The EU effectively ended trade talks last week” - Michael Gove tells Marr “door is ajar if EU changes it’s position - but we are ready to leave on Australian terms”...
Marr: “but could be called Mongolian or Afghan terms”
Gove says he backs promising UK during referendum “we hold all the cards” though he tells Marr “we hold cards”
Marr: “Do you think the public is going to thank you for leaving the EU without any trade deal the middle of a global pandemic?”
Gove: “Public like me would rather we had an FTA but would not thank us if Eu still in control .. ultimately want us to take back control”