Government: “it’s a question of semantics at the end of the day, sure” on the use of the phrase “Australia-style terms” to describe no trade deal/ tariffs with EU - also was headline of the overnight press release
use of “Australia-terms” is even more puzzling, because it is obviously designed to reassure...

But actual point of campaign launched today is to get 10,000s of UK businesses to prepare & react.

Surely they want to say very directly “prepare for tariffs”...“prepare for checks”?
Similar issue Govt ad campaign, which some say looks more like kwik-fit tyre change ad - is Govt communicating this is a really big deal, potentially major business risk which will require weeks of prep? Or is it something you can sort out on the way back home from shops one Sat?
Conflict here between

political imperative to say “oven ready deal” achieved, leading to need to play changes down = “Australia”/ nice traffic lights

& actual imperative right now to communicate clearly/ credibly with eg 40% polled biz who think therell be extension/ no change
NEW:

PM’s talks with business leaders over crucial Brexit preps described to @bbcsimonjack as “terrible” and “utterly disrespectful” - there for 15 mins of 22 min call... 👇🏽

‘People weren’t prepared for the Single Market in 1992 either!’ - one of the PM’s messages to the business leaders on the call

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More from @faisalislam

20 Oct
...European Commission just started raising first part of €88bn 10/20 year AAA debt on international markets to support 17 member states’ pandemic employment programmes - half going to Spain and Italy, as social bonds...
essentially deploys AAA credit of northern EU to help more fiscally challenged members - as was long argued about during eurozone crisis - and was cause of some UK concern as a member - “the appetiser” ahead of main course of €1 trillion issuance by 2026 ec.europa.eu/commission/com…
Example of EU moving ahead on pooling sovereignty more quickly than would have been the case had UK still been a member - Remains to be seen what proportion the ECB buys in secondary market - a sort of EU-wide QE. Bundesbank wants to make sure it’s a one off... but it’s happened.
Read 6 tweets
18 Oct
“The EU effectively ended trade talks last week” - Michael Gove tells Marr “door is ajar if EU changes it’s position - but we are ready to leave on Australian terms”...
Marr: “but could be called Mongolian or Afghan terms”
Gove says he backs promising UK during referendum “we hold all the cards” though he tells Marr “we hold cards”
Marr: “Do you think the public is going to thank you for leaving the EU without any trade deal the middle of a global pandemic?”
Gove: “Public like me would rather we had an FTA but would not thank us if Eu still in control .. ultimately want us to take back control”
Read 7 tweets
16 Oct
Coming up on @BBCNewsnight with me - exclusive first UK TV interview with Macron’s Europe minister Clement Beaune responding to No 10 saying talks over & Barnier should not come to London. on fish, state aid, internal market bill, and a “misunderstanding” about Canada ...
So progress made over past week, areas of compromise were starting to open up on state aid/ governance.

But PM’s Oct 15 deadline gambit all about getting EU summit to adapt Barnier mandate - didn’t happen... in that respect it is worth careful look at what minister told me yday:
1. Asked reaction to “talks over” & Barnier shouldn’t travel to London @Cbeaune tells me “still willing to discuss” & “now up to UK to say whether its worth discussing”.. if UK say “we’re ready to do another round of discussion” we “willing and happy”

Read 17 tweets
15 Oct
Charles Michel EUCO President specifically singles out level playing field and uses example of car industry, and the UK wanting freedom to subsidise (ie state aid) at same time as expecting full tariff free access to single market, says it risks 100,000s of jobs
Barnier - “our positions have been crystal clear from day 1 - if you want access to our market of 450 million, there must be a level playing field” says EU27 remain united and calm
Lord Frost responds as BArnier giving presser:

Read 20 tweets
14 Oct
It was often said privately in the aftermath of the 2014 referendum, at SNP conferences etc, that they’d have to wait until polling got to 60% before a renewed referendum push. This is one poll, but overall trend in polls is clear...

Also might interact with trade negotiations..
Within Cabinet - argument about Union weighing heavy on those leaning for deal...

Even the perception No Trade Deal would create specific additional problems herr for Govt ahead of elections next May, could affect how likely EU side see as UK actually going for “Australia terms”
Read 4 tweets
14 Oct
NEW
UK push on tariff free electric/ hybrid car trade with non-European battery rejected in EU draft circulated with member states, obtained by BBC.

Essentially some UK car exports to EU will attract tariffs with or without deal from Jan, after rejection of 70% foreign parts ask
UK asked for a transition of vehicles with up to 70% non-European parts (essentially Japanese batteries/ hybrid systems) to be eligible... after specific asks from within UK car sector.

EU draft says 45% from January (ie majority UK & EU)... (same as petrol/diesel)
... EU draft goes further, from 2027, any electric or hybrid would have to have EU or UK battery, to be eligible for tariff free trade..

Clear strategic effort to prevent UK from being offshore assembly hub for Single market for cars with Chinese or SE Asian electric systems
Read 9 tweets

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