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20 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
$BTC price action has been very strong and orderly, against a backdrop of negative funding for *all* perpetuals' open interest, which speaks of a spot driven market. No interest in fading this move. Would need to see a massive spike before hedging any longs, maybe above 13K.
Today's BTC-ETH divergence, with $BTC up and $ETH down, has been crypto's talk of the day. Some attribute it to Powell's CBDC talk, though I think it is mostly related to Square inspired flows.
The USD has been taking a big hit in the last two days in response to central bankers' statements. But the dollar does not impact $BTC and $ETH assymetrically. BTC-DXY and ETH-DXY correlations have been similar since April, with ETH's correlation in fact slightly stronger.
Chart shows 20 day rolling correlations of daily returns for BTC-DXY (above) and ETH-DXY (below). The two plots are extremely similar.

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Alex Profile picture
21 Oct
1/ A deeper look at what happens when the Bitcoin - Ethereum correlation breaks down.

Looking at the 20 day correlation of returns, since 2018 correlation only broke down twice during a bitcoin upmove.

In May/2019, and now. Image
2/ Back in 2019, decorrelation started in early April, which shows in the correlation plot with a 20 day lag.

A major correction (lower) ensued. Image
3/ This plot shows the 10 day cummulative forward returns following every time since 2018 where the 5 day correlations of returns fell below 0.5. As it just happened.

What can you see there?

Nothing, there is no clear pattern, returns are evenly distributed. Image
Read 6 tweets
Alex Profile picture
18 Oct
"At present, there is no direct evidence on the effectiveness of universal masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19." - World Heatlh Organizarion, June 2020

~source: apps.who.int/iris/bitstream… Image
"At the present time, the widespread use of masks by healthy people in the community setting is not yet supported by high quality or direct scientific evidence and there are potential benefits and harms to consider." - World Heatlh Organizarion, June 2020

(same source)
Potential harms/disadvantages of mask wearing by healthy people in the general public, according to the World Health Organization 👇 Image
Read 7 tweets
Alex Profile picture
7 Oct
Think we are in the brink of an alts short squeeze.
Here's the short squeeze.

Unfortunately a massive long squeeze came before. $YFI died last night, temporarily taking all of DeFi down with it.

Reason I expected a short squeeze was chart based. Funding was ratehr flat across the board, and I was wrong.
Volume indicates that may have been the $YFI bottom, and the DeFi bottom by extension. Better calling it in real time, but it was a busy night to be tweeting, particularly when dead tired and trading. The one thing making me doubt has been the funding which never went negative.
Read 6 tweets
Alex Profile picture
4 Oct
has been getting Creamed. Recent underperformance relative to other cryptos has been notable. One could argue it is the chart. But it is not. One can find plenty equally poor charts across crypto. This IMO is the marketplace punishing by removing the Cronje premium.
Great thread. Yields matter. However, the main reason IMO was Yearn's blatant negligence around the launch, and how poorly the aftermath was handled. Said so when it happened, not in hindsight later. Many exited/reduced positions because of it.

The bigger picture bull case remains unchanged. Odds are high this whole ordeal is short term noise. But in the meantime price crashed a very meaningful 45% in six days.

The event and how it was handled should remind speculators of how high Founder Risk is with .
Read 7 tweets
Alex Profile picture
22 Sep
This is a message to all bad traders out there.

Do you want to turn $5,000 into $50,000 in a year?

I'm going to tell you how.
It is simple.

Just do the exact opposite of whatever it is you are doing.
This is a message inspired by the Palm Beach Group of scammers who promise ridiculous riches. It is all common sense my friends, don't fall for scams.
Read 4 tweets
Alex Profile picture
21 Sep
Hindsight rationale for today's crash

#1 UK lockdown talks (seemingly overrated)
#2 Fiscal package odds collapsed even further (Ginzburg)

+last week's news:
#3 No added monetary stimulus until elections pass

+secondary narratives:
#4 Positioning
#5 Corporate Blackouts
All asset classes moved in synchronicity: stocks, bonds, metals, crypto, etc. Non Crypto - Crypto correlations spike when large sentiment changes occur and realized volatility pops. Incredibly, for crypto traders now the macro often matters more than the micro (e.g. miner flows).
Expect volatile chop until the elections. This translates into no chasing trends and reducing risk exposure.

Up or down, don't know. Today exposed how vulnerable the market is to headline risk. VIX in the upper 20s means one has to be ready to rumble.

Read 7 tweets

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