here is my current "pessimist" election map. there's no science involved here, just my gut. its not a prediction, just a "i feel like this" right now.
here's my slightly more optimistic map. i guess my main thing is i dont trust the southern states to flip. if they do flip, i would say its most likely it's nc and fl. and in the most ideal scenario, ga too.
oh and biden might get that wildcard nebraska district in either scenario
and this is probably the closest we could come to a landslide in modern politics. and also almost 100% guaranteed not to happen.
if this last map happens i will record a video of me screaming "i love george w bush."
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People love to think Democrats are playing these intense chess games. I learned decades ago this isn’t the case.
It’s how we give them too much latitude to make dumb decisions. “Ah this apparently nonsensical move must be part of an opening gambit in a grand plan.” Nope, it’s just a silly move and we should have cut them off early.
The people are actually smarter than the politicians, every time. They don’t have access to secret files we don’t. If anything their position in power tends to blind them to obvious things normal people can easily see. Never give them the benefit of the doubt.
The big conservative attack on Biden consistently seems to be “loves his kid,” which I know is unusual for the party of Trump but good dads love their children, you sick pieces of shit.
Sorry but I have a visceral hatred of this crap and it is every day with these scumbags and it always feels like we’re fighting them with both hands tied behind our backs and our lips sewn shut. That has to end.
We have to drag them through the mud, and winning elections is just not enough.
i saw obama live at the kennedy endorsement in maryland in 2008 and at the dnc in colorado that same year. sweet acoustic "yes we can" set. #barryheads
i do have a bittersweet memory re the kennedy rally. only rally i ever went to with my mom. we were standing there and then obama came out and boom, my mom disappears, right up against the railing to watch.
election night that yr she was in jamaica, we bawled like crazy on phone
theres all kinds of practical real world politics and stuff you can associate with this. but obama was the first person i followed from before he won the il senate, to when he was a longshot vs hrc, to the white house.
im focused on a lot of post-election narratives because they tend to set up the next few years. if they win, dems should shout constantly about how they kicked ass. they should also note they've been kicking ass and don't allow the gop/trump to quickly rehab themselves.
a trump loss is an utter failure of conservatism, a repudiation of conservative leadership and ideas, a total and absolute failure of epic proportions and it should be portrayed as such, not just an aberration.
"Trump took a conservative approach to government. He put big business in charge of the economy, he privatized the virus response, and it was an utter failure, ruining the economy and killing thousands" - something progressives should say for the next 100 yrs. carterize him.
trump's new thing is to claim he was in the lead before the virus hit. i suppose if he loses, that's how he'll spin it. the virus hit in march. trump's been behind biden in the polls for over a year (and was losing to other candidates like bernie too).
another story you never see: trump has never had an aggregate positive approval rating. bush and obama had a "lets give him a shot" moment early in their presidencies. trump never had it. ever.
by comparison, here's obama's approval (you'll remember that when he was in the red in 2012, the reporting was like "omg he's dead, he's toast"