1/4
@fbermingham probably didn't come up with the title, but either way I don’t think Vietnam, mainland China and Taiwan are “poster boys” for world trade at all. If trade had really recovered in these economies, we would see both exports and...
scmp.com/economy/china-…
@fbermingham probably didn't come up with the title, but either way I don’t think Vietnam, mainland China and Taiwan are “poster boys” for world trade at all. If trade had really recovered in these economies, we would see both exports and...
scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/4
imports recover, not just exports. This means that the "recovery" in trade has not been driven by a recovery in the domestic economy.
So what drove it? Back in April and May, I was already writing about how certain trade-dependent countries in Asia were responding...
imports recover, not just exports. This means that the "recovery" in trade has not been driven by a recovery in the domestic economy.
So what drove it? Back in April and May, I was already writing about how certain trade-dependent countries in Asia were responding...
3/4
to Covid-19 with supply-side measures that effectively subsidized exports at the expense of imports, the result of which would be surging trade surpluses – even as trade imbalances around the world contracted and their trade partners struggled to boost demand.
to Covid-19 with supply-side measures that effectively subsidized exports at the expense of imports, the result of which would be surging trade surpluses – even as trade imbalances around the world contracted and their trade partners struggled to boost demand.
4/4
I would argue that this is almost certainly what happened. Rather than reaffirm the value of global trade, in other words, the response of these countries to Covid-19 will most likely worsen global trade tensions.
I would argue that this is almost certainly what happened. Rather than reaffirm the value of global trade, in other words, the response of these countries to Covid-19 will most likely worsen global trade tensions.
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