In Israel, the number of new infections has fallen by a factor of 4.5 in 15 days. That's with a lockdown, not much centralized quarantining.
Imagine we had this. There might be a week-long plateau, as Israel had in the first week of October, during the transition.
We had 140,000 new infections EU-wide yesterday. And then after a month of this, we'd have 7,000.
In another month, make it 350. With mandatory centralized quarantine rather than a lockdown, this can go on for a while.
If everyone gets it in the Union, around 7 million people will die. Or the EU and the member states can choose to end it now.
So go ahead. Prove that Europe can govern itself. Prove there's something here that's worth anything. Prove Europe cares about life.
Prove the states are legitimate. Prove the West isn't a death cult. Prove the French, German, etc. languages aren't just bullshit patois.

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More from @alon_levy

24 Oct
The people who have a "by any means necessary" reaction to one death suddenly turn into procedure hawks at 1,000 daily deaths.
If we think Europe and the US are dying out of arrogant unwillingness to learn from Asia, it follows that cultural intervention is required.
So, for example, habituating the natives to taking orders from non-Westerners through targeted hiring programs would be very good.
Read 23 tweets
21 Oct
1. Western economies outperform Korea on stuff like promotion based on merit, not facetime. Korea does better on urbanization and education.
2. But urbanization and education are controlled away in total factor productivity, making Korea look less efficient overall.
3. But this is wrong! Korea isn't just catching up. Half its population lives in one megacity; no other country is that urban.
Read 7 tweets
11 Oct
1. Is Nordic culture really collectivist? Some examples of how it really isn't by any common non-Nordic standards.
2. The method I'm using is to compare pairs of non-Nordic cultures, like the US and Germany, and see where the Nordics fit.
3. Exhibit 1: in the US, stores open 7 days a week; in Germany, they close on Sundays, justified on social and religious grounds.
Read 53 tweets
10 Oct
Empirically? Probably nothing. Race does not correlate with crime in the US after you correct for poverty rates.
And the black-white income gap in the US is... maybe 25%? So about the same as Italy-Germany.
NCVS! The ratio depends on how you count - it's higher for multiple-offender crime. Averaged over victims, it's 2.
Read 6 tweets
10 Oct
Thirst-posting: I ran out of water last night, and the 24/7 Spätis closed overnight because of corona restrictions.
I finished a large bottle of water this morning on the way back from Aldi.
I think the restriction is only on overnight booze sales, but the Spätis just closed. I guess they don't make money on chocolate? :(
Read 4 tweets
9 Oct
1. Mini-thread on excess deaths and an error in @OurWorldInData re corona. They added South Korea, which looks like this: Image
2. In other words, per the tracker, South Korea has 20% excess deaths for people aged 85+, and has since before the crisis started.
3. @OurWorldInData also thinks Korea had more excess deaths than Germany interwave. (Ignore the last few weeks, the data is laggy.) Image
Read 14 tweets

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