Updated hospital admissions and deaths for England, starting with admissions. Today sees 900 breached for the first time, but there are signs of a slight slowing of the growth rate, doubling in 16 days. Early days though, as we saw a similar easing in late Sep, soon reversed. 1/4 Image
For deaths, the doubling time is faster, at about 10 days. We've also seen 100 deaths breached, with 117 reported for the 17th already. A reminder for new readers, we uplift recent days to allow for reporting lags, using a standard actuarial method based on recent delays. 2/4 Image
Our estimate of R is drifting down slightly, consistent with admissions growth, but you can see from the volatility that stronger evidence is needed before any firm conclusion can be drawn. What might be behind any easing? We'll look at the regional picture next. 3/4 Image
Looking at the growth rates, the north is continuing to show lower growth, and indeed the NW has stalled in the last few days, which is an encouraging sign. The Midlands is catching up though. At the other end, SE growth of 13% is very low, and a marked contrast with London. 4/4. Image

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More from @COVID19actuary

25 Oct
How’s your Sunday going? Do you have enough reading material?

ICYMI - here is some of our group’s output from the week just gone.

1. We started the week with an exploration of the statistics and real life implications of #superspreading from @Sharpe_Actuary
2. Next @john_actuary examined Monday’s @ONS report on excess mortality at home that has been seen since the peak. He (and ONS) highlighted the crucial context that deaths overall have been no higher than usual (since the peak) so this just represents a shift between settings.
3. On Tuesday we shared the latest report from the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI), part of @actuarynews.

They found that death rates in late Sept and early Oct were very similar to 2019. So the COVID-19 deaths were not yet translating in higher death rates overall.
Read 9 tweets
24 Oct
Our usual Saturday update of England hospital admissions and deaths, starting with admissions. The moving average has increased 31% in a week, down from 42% a week ago, representing an easing of the growth rate. Doubling time is now around 18 days. 1/4 Image
Sadly we've seen deaths exceed 100 per day this week, and the current doubling time of 10 days is broadly consistent with that for admissions about two weeks ago. We can expect these figures to rise further before hopefully the rate of growth starts to ease. 2/4 Image
Our estimate of R continues to edge down in line with the fall in admissions growth. However, it is still around 1.3 which suggests numbers will continue to grow. This won't reflect the most recent restrictions, as there is a lag of around 2 weeks from infection to admission. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets

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