President Trump's shrinking base: The number of non-college-educated white voters — who gave him just enough of a margin to win in 2016 — has been in a long-term decline.
That decline has continued since 2016 — posing a challenge to his re-election. nyti.ms/3dPypwZ
That decline has continued since 2016 — posing a challenge to his re-election. nyti.ms/3dPypwZ
The number of voting-age white Americans without college degrees has dropped by more than five million in the past four years.
In the same timeframe, the number of minority voters and college-educated white voters has increased by more than 13 million. nyti.ms/3dPypwZ
In the same timeframe, the number of minority voters and college-educated white voters has increased by more than 13 million. nyti.ms/3dPypwZ
Despite the declines, white non-college-educated voters continue to show enthusiasm for Trump and Republicans.
In the 2018 midterms, even without Trump on the ballot, white voters without college degrees turned out in numbers not seen in a midterm election in decades.
In the 2018 midterms, even without Trump on the ballot, white voters without college degrees turned out in numbers not seen in a midterm election in decades.
The demographic divide has become a bellwether for political preference, especially in the closest states: A Trump coalition of white voters without college degrees and a Biden coalition of college-educated white voters — especially women — and minority voters.
In these eight battleground states, there are still plenty of non-college-educated white voters Trump may be able to count on.
But most of these states have also been undergoing the same changes in the electorate as the country as a whole.
But most of these states have also been undergoing the same changes in the electorate as the country as a whole.
The shifts are happening across the U.S., driven largely by aging: Non-college-educated white voters are older — and are steadily declining. The Biden coalition is younger and aging into voting.
Still, there's good news for Trump: Young voters remain much less reliable voters.
Still, there's good news for Trump: Young voters remain much less reliable voters.
Beyond 2020, these trends foreshadow further strengthening of both minority and college-educated white cohorts at the expense of white voters without college degrees.
Read more about how changing U.S. demographics could influence the country's politics. nyti.ms/3dPypwZ
Read more about how changing U.S. demographics could influence the country's politics. nyti.ms/3dPypwZ
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