Hey from Arizona! Where things are going smoothly!

A big reason:

Maricopa County (60% of AZ electorate) has 75% more ballots returned at this point than four years ago & processing is going well.

Watch this to see what the initial system once USPS drops off your ballot:
Here’s the room where officials are verifying the signature on every mail-in ballot envelope. TWO officials check each signature against one’s signature recorded in the voter registration database or other files (like DMV) if necessary. If not verified, then county calls voter— Image
And then!

Here is where one person picked by AZGOP & one person picked by AZDems manually pull out every ballot out of envelope. They work together to stack the ballots. These envelopes are saved until after the certification (& challenge period) of all ballots.
Then your ballot is tabulated here at your county elections department. This process, in arizona, started on Tuesday to ensure early ballots are processed by election night. This is what state legislatures in the Midwest have resisted doing & why there will be backlog post-E Day.
If there is a discrepancy on your ballot that the tabulator catches, then it pulls it out & these folks — picked by their political parties for this process — hand/eye analyze that ballot. Image
And finally, the data count for the tabulated ballots heads into this hard drive, where it is stored until election night. Image

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More from @VaughnHillyard

4 Nov
Based off of the numbers we have so far, there are about 440k outstanding ballots.

If that's the case (we expect more*)...

Trump would have to win these remaining ballots 60.6% to Biden's 39.4%.
And look to @Garrett_Archer for breakdown of how E-Day voters voted -- Trump won those voters statewide & in, specifically, Maricopa County, by more than 60%.

That said, plenty of reason to believe higher rate of Dems turned in late earlies in final days.
And ** the major swath comes from Maricopa County (because the above numbers don't include their late earlies, it appears).

Lots of caveats...all this to say, there are still several hundred thousand outstanding ballots in Arizona in a close race.
Read 4 tweets
3 Nov
What does Arizona look with under 6 hours left?

Per convos around the horn today...

Looking like GOP may be able to hit their R+3 statewide mark by night's end.

That is what most pollsters (including NYT's Friday poll) were using as marker.

In 2016? It was R+6.7 statewide. Image
From data so far, GOP is near R+2 statewide. *But: GOP in-person voters are outpacing Dem in-person voters in Maricopa by about 2.5-to-1 margin. Their ballot advantage expected to increase more w/ rural in-person voters & early ballots dropped off today.
Again, we need more data from rural counties & Pima County -- especially on # of early ballots being *dropped off* at polls.

But, again, Independents also voting today at solid rate in Maricopa. And if Biden is ~+20% among INDs, that's hard to overcome.
Read 5 tweets
18 Aug
Good day from Yuma, Arizona ~ 77 days til the election.

Here’s the line to get into President Trump’s campaign event — I’m told it’ll be a 1000 person limit here at a Yuma airport hangar.
Pres. Trump is en route to Yuma for 2nd time in 2 months.

Why?

Just 3% of Arizonans, per our July poll, say they are undecided between Biden & Trump.

Now it's a matter of turning your supporters out -- and for Trump, selling his on 2016 promises.

What does Yuma represent? For Trump:

1) Border wall -- 300 miles of new wall (majority is replacement).
2) USMCA -- Yuma is America's winter lettuce capital/major ag economy
3) Military -- Marine Corps Air Station Yuma here (+10k miliitary/family members)
Read 8 tweets
10 Aug
It's the most expensive race in Arizona history -- already.

For the Senate seat held by GOP for 50 years, from Goldwater to McCain, w/ @kaitlin_purcia @MattWargo.

Thread Below --> Extended clips from my interviews with @CaptMarkKelly & @SenMcSallyAZ.
msnbc.com/kasie-dc/watch…
NBC: "A member of Congress who you think you most identify with?”

.@CaptMarkKelly: "...John McCain...example of how you would serve your nation in a very difficult & challenging moment. He was a guy I looked up to & then later, I got to meet him & eventually call him a friend."
NBC: What went wrong in AZ with COVID?

@CaptMarkKelly: "We need a national plan. I mean, we don't have it...the president was thanking China & thanking them for their transparency. He even thanked them on behalf of the American people. Senator McSally said nothing."
Read 25 tweets
1 Jul
Arizona just reported *4,878* new COVID cases in the last 24 hours--a staggering record.

Arizona just reported *88* newly-reported COVID deaths--another staggering record.

Arizona just reported the percent positive rate of tests today was *28.3%* -- this is...a numbing number.
Why is this 28.3% positive number so numbing? More than 1 out of 4 tests coming back positive. (Was ~6% in early May)

Indicates coming spike in hospitalizations & more widespread exposure.

Hard to compare this to NY's height because there was such targeted testing early on.
Vice President Pence just landed into Arizona.

Take this all into account:

Just last week, thousands of Trump supporters congregated--almost none wearing a masks--just down the road.

For the first time, this Sunday, in response to @albamonica, the @VP said: "Wear a mask."
Read 6 tweets
23 Jun
Let's be very clear what's happening while Pres. Trump urges this.

Arizona experienced an inundation of folks seeking COVID tests over last week. It led to hours-long waits, denial of tests & backlog in processing//results taking 7+ days to be returned.
nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Sonora Quest Laboratories, the major lab here that has processed about 80% of AZ's COVID tests, has capacity to process 12k tests a day--but in last week, the # of tests it has received from testing partners has exceeded that daily limit, causing the major backlog of cases.
“We just can’t ramp up fast enough,” Sonya Engle, the chief operating officer for Sonora Quest Laboratories, tells me.

**The lab that processes 80% of Arizona's tests does not have the current capacity to process the daily demand of incoming tests.**
nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Read 14 tweets

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