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23 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
On one hand, TX isn't (and was never) poised to be a "tipping point" for 270 EVs. On the other, even a modest investment in several smaller, low-turnout TX media markets could now determine which way TX tips.
Highest TX early voting turnout so far (as share of RVs, counties w/ 100k+ registrants only):

1. Collin (Trump +17 in '16): 48%
2. Williamson (Trump +10): 48%
3. Denton (Trump +20): 47%
4. Comal (Trump +50): 46%
5. Brazoria (Trump +25): 44%
Lowest TX early voting turnout so far (as share of RVs, counties w/ 100k+ registrants only):

1. Webb (Clinton +52 in '16): 21%
2. Bell (Trump +15): 27%
3. Cameron (Clinton +33): 29%
4. El Paso (Clinton +43): 30%
5. Hidalgo (Clinton +41): 31%
Also: not sure if this is an error, but Medina County, TX (Trump +43 in '16) is reporting 24,178 votes cast so far on the TX SOS page (72% turnout).

That would be 140% of the *total* 2016 votes cast in the county.
Update: Medina and Scurry, TX look like obvious errors.

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More from @Redistrict

Dave Wasserman Profile picture
22 Oct
Here are my updated demographic splits in average crosstabs of live-interview national polls, w/ new @QuinnipiacPoll thrown into the October mix.

A few breathtaking splits:
- Biden now +25 w/ women
- Biden now +10 w/ seniors
In my view, the biggest "tell" Trafalgar etc. are off the mark? Private, district-level GOP polling conducted to make spending decisions backs up what we're seeing in averages of live-interview polls: Trump doing terribly w/ college whites/women into October.
The only group where we're seeing improvement in Trump's margin vs. '16? Hispanic voters.

Today, live-interview average has Trump down 27 points, vs. 38 points per @UpshotNYT's average of final '16 polls.
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
20 Oct
More people have now early voted in TX than the number of people who voted for Donald Trump in TX in 2016.
(Disclaimer: this suggests voter interest/intensity is way higher than in the past and we're headed for massive turnout - as we are everywhere - but not much beyond that.)
TX early/mail votes cast so far in 2020, as share of total 2016 votes cast:

Clinton-won counties: 60%
Trump-won counties: 59%

Another reminder you shouldn't read a partisan advantage from huge turnout. Both parties' bases highly motivated.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
16 Oct
Brief thread: here's why I don't put a ton of stock into the *overall* pro-R registration trend in FL from '16 to '20. Take the 33 least populous of FL's 67 counties, which are mostly rural and located in the north/panhandle (aka the Deep South)...
In November 2016, these 33 counties collectively had a narrow 42%-40% GOP voter registration advantage. But here's how they *voted:*

Trump: 369,045 (67%)
Clinton: 170,871 (31%)

Btw, Trump's statewide margin was 112,911 votes.
Fast forward to 2020: the final data shows the GOP voter registration advantage in these 33 counties has grown to 48%-32%.

These aren't new Trump voters. These are existing Trump voters formalizing their party change from D to R.
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
16 Oct
Just in: final FL voter reg. data. Since this March's primary, here are each party's net gains:

GOP: +344,465
Dem: +197,821
NPA/Other: +197,818

Compare to the same period in '16:

GOP: +274,207
Dem: +307,961
NPA/Other: +220,857

Trump's '16 FL margin: 112,911 votes
For reference, here's the story I wrote for @NBCNews a few weeks ago putting the GOP's recent registration success in FL/NC/PA in context: nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Here's the final Nov. 2020 FL voter breakdown by party and race (14,441,869 registrants):

37% Dem
36% GOP
27% NPA/Other

61.5% White
17.3% Hispanic
13.4% Black
7.8% Other

Compare to Nov. 2016:

38% Dem
35% GOP
27% NPA/Other

64.2% White
15.7% Hispanic
13.4% Black
6.7% Other
Read 6 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
15 Oct
New Marist/PBS & NBC/WSJ polls bring us to a critical mass of October live-interview national polls, and to me Biden's gains appear to be pretty even across the board (except for Black voters, where there wasn't much room to grow).
To be clear, "final 2016 polls" are via @Nate_Cohn/@UpshotNYT's estimates and this chart is my running average of 2020 national live-interview poll crosstabs, including NYT/Siena, CNN, ABC/WaPo, NBC/WSJ, Fox, Marist/PBS, Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Suffolk and Grinnell/Selzer.
One fascinating takeaway is that Biden's 12% lead over Trump is the same size as in June/July, but:

1) far fewer undecideds today (54%-42% vs. 52%-40%)
2) Biden's average lead has expanded by 4% since June/July among seniors & Hispanics
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
9 Oct
New @pewresearch poll: Biden leads 69%-27% among those who plan to vote by mail, Trump leads 63%-31% among those who plan to vote on Election Day. pewresearch.org/politics/2020/…
Also interesting: @pewresearch finds that of the 5% of RVs who support Jorgensen/Hawkins, they would lean Trump over Biden 54%-42% if forced to choose - suggesting their presence might actually aid Biden?
Sorry, should have noted Biden also leading 55%-40% among early in person, per @pewresearch.
Read 4 tweets

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