Let's be fair with our comparisons between @BarackObama and @realDonaldTrump.

Both faced pandemics.

A short thread on why Obama apparently succeeded and Trump has been a total unmitigated failure.
Both faced pandemics.

2009 H1N1

2019 SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19.

Hard to compare them.

But Trump brought it up and it deserves consideration.

Ok, let's do it.
2009 and 2010 had NO excess deaths in comparison to surrounding years.

2020 we know has around 270,000 all-cause excess deaths so far, and we are sadly on track for well above 300,000.
In the worst year of Obama's 1st term, 810 Americans per 100,000 died (all causes).

This year 950-990 Americans per 100,000 will die (all causes).

But this is key: the excess deaths in 2020 occurred during COVID spikes, not during lockdowns.

The curves match almost perfectly.
I am not saying that we should compare these pandemics.

But if you do, as Trump asked, you find that in 2009-2010 we did ok.

In 2020, we are living an epidemiologic disaster, that other nations have shown is actually to SOME extent, maybe even a large extent, in our control.
I have come to the conclusion that the best way to beat the virus, save our economy, and prevent the next one, is to:

Remove the incompetent folks in the White House who have shown us their "best effort."

NOT GOOD ENOUGH.

I will NOT accept 950-980 deaths per 100,000 Americans.
Why will I not accept 975 deaths per 100,000 Americans?

BECAUSE WE'RE AN INDUSTRIALIZED ECONOMY, PEOPLE!

DEATH RATES LIKE DO NOT OCCUR IN SUCH NATIONS.

But if we fail to act, we may as well be lumped in with "developing nations."

That's how bad it is.

Turn the tide!

/fin

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Jeremy Faust MD MS (ER physician)

Jeremy Faust MD MS (ER physician) Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jeremyfaust

20 Oct
🦠BREAKING GOOD NEWS!

Suicide deaths in Massachusetts did NOT increase during the stay-at-home “shutdown” period in March, April, May, 2020.

The notion that suicide deaths increased during this period here is simply inaccurate, we now can confidently say.

🧵/
Here’s a briefing summarizing our findings in the @nytimes: nytimes.com/live/2020/10/2…

And a direct link to the new research: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

Let’s unpack this 2/
But first, if you or anyone you know is at risk or having mental health concerns, please call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 800-273-8255.

....
Read 12 tweets
2 Oct
⚠️ Let's start over.

(This thread will review the timeline of early events of this crisis, and then towards the end, I will add my analysis of what went wrong)

🦠COVID-19 is a life-threatening disease.

It is caused by SARS-CoV-2, a coronavirus.

1/
Cases first emerged, likely jumping to humans from fruit bats, in late December. The first cases were reported then.

At first, the WHO and CDC did not know whether this was contagious between humans.

But by January 9th, we knew that it was a coronavirus.
On January 11, China furnished the genetic sequence of the virus initially called nCoV-2, and now referred to as SARS-CoV-2.

By January 14, human-to-human transmission was a real concern.
Read 17 tweets
30 Sep
Unfortunately, I have come to the conclusion that I need to resume publishing weekly excess mortality reports for Massachusetts.

I‘ve been monitoring this all summer but stopped publishing when we had many weeks without excess deaths.

Today, I see signs that our streak ended.
In addition, I should add that I believe our relatively long shelter in place and phased re-opening meant that we could see this coming.

Cases were <200 per day for a while.

Now we see that doubled.
The point of reopening when cases are low is to be willing to make behavioral modifications (partial shutdown/restrictions) in MOMENTS LIKE THIS.

@MassGovernor.
Read 4 tweets
22 Sep
📢2020 will be the deadliest year in modern American history.

We will see >3 million deaths for the first time ever.

In fact, well over that number.

Join me for a thread on basic epidemiology and how we count deaths and where things stack up, historically.

🧵 ...
We'll probably see 3.15 - 3.25 million deaths this year (from all causes).

That is around 300,000 or more will be more than was "expected"

But is that normal variance?

Is that just a "bad year" combined with a bigger population?

No and no.
How do we keep track of deaths in this country?

It's easy.

The CDC counts all the deaths, and divides by the population.

(We're not talking about deciding what caused the deaths. This is ALL CAUSES).

We express deaths as "deaths per 100,000 people."

So how are we looking?
Read 13 tweets
12 Aug
Reviewer comment: "A standard element of ICMJE reporting guidelines and instructions for authors is to note the software used for analysis."

Reply: "Averages were calculated on my iPhone 11."
“And checked for accuracy using long division”
Using #2 graphite pencil.
Read 4 tweets
12 Aug
Q: Why have so many SARS-CoV-2 models failed?
A: Failure to account for asymptomatic spread.

My collaborators @biomathematicus+@JacobBAguilar are among the world's great minds on this.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

That's why they found an *Ro of 12* in San Antonio.

Let's discuss🧵
The main finding in our new paper is that in order to get the R down below 1, a place like San Antonio would have to do a good shutdown for up to 83 days.

Which might ring a bell!

That's about how long the places that beat this thing stayed closed.

More on that later.
First, the Ro (R-naught) or basic reproduction number must be understood.

It's a combination of biology (things about the virus) and behavior (how we live).

The earlier estimates missed asymptomatic spread.

So they said Ro=2.68.

That was very, very wrong.
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!