1/ Young investors must walk uphill in deep snow to get to a work investing in markets every single day.
Charlie Munger: "We had idiot competition when we were young. Now we’ve got tough competition scrounging every area and little niche. It's way harder."google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.…
2/ Munger: "It’s gotten hard to find easy value investments because the world is so competitive. That accounts for a buying securities like Apple that we wouldn’t have bought in the old days when we had more mundane things that were serving us very well."
3/ Michael Mauboussin: "An absolute improvement in skill, when combined with a relative decline in the range of skill, means that luck is more important than ever. This concept is called the “paradox of skill.” research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?langua…
4/ Charlie Munger: "The amazing thing is we did so well while being so stupid. That’s why you’re all here: you think there’s hope for you. Go to where there’s dumb competition.” Wesco Annual Meeting 2010. Munger talks about the same idea in this interview. forbes.com/2010/05/12/cha…
5/ Charlie Munger: "The competition sorting through opportunities today is more intelligent, more aggressive, and more numerous. Of course it’s harder. The net result is people are gonna get worse results. The people who start now have lower opportunity." google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc…
6/ Charlie Munger: "The investment world has gotten tougher. Maybe now we have small advantages, when before it was like shooting fish in a barrel.” “We can’t bring back the low hanging fruit; we will have to reach for higher branches.” google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
7/ Charlie Munger: "It is a good idea to not play where the other people are better.” “The first rule of fishing is to fish where the fish are. We’ve gotten good at fishing where the fish are. There’s too many boats in the damn water, but the fish are still in it.”
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1/ "Distributors like Comcast and Charter no longer care that much whether or not a customer buys traditional pay-TV. The price of a video bundle has gotten so high, there's little margin for them -- especially compared to broadband internet service." news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…
2/ In world where password sharing is rampant, the bigger the cross-selling revenue, the more likely the streaming service is a survivor.
"While stealing cable TV is difficult, it’s easier to share a password for a streaming service, and it’s more common among younger viewers."
3/ The value of a bundle breaks if the buyer can purchase an alternative service outside the bundle. Entertainment services that are are more substitutable (i.e., a commodity) weaken the value of a bundle. Movies are more of a commodity than sports, so the latter is stickier.
"Starship will be the world’s largest launch vehicle with a mass 5000 tonnes, more than eight times the world’s largest passenger jet, the Airbus A380. 28 Raptor engines producing more thrust than an astounding 50 A380s (75,315 kN/16,931,500 lbf)." nasaspaceflight.com/2020/10/the-co…
"Starship reusable cargo variant’s 150 tonne payload has a cargo bay large enough to swallow a passenger locomotive. A passenger variant of Starship will hold at least 100 passengers in a 1000 cubic meter pressurized cabin that's 9% larger than the International Space Station."
3/ Elon Musk:
•"80-90% confident of reaching orbit with Starship next year.
•50-60% confident of ship and booster reuse next year.
•High volume flights in 2022 -- each capable of launching up to 400 Starlink satellites.
•Refuel in orbit in 2022." reddit.com/r/Starlink/com…
1/ Elon Musk keeps wholesale transfer pricing power:
“Tesla is absolutely vertically integrated compared to other auto companies or basically most any company. We have a massive amount of internal manufacturing technology that we built ourselves." fool.com/earnings/call-…
2/ Musk refuses to buy components from traditional suppliers who want unit prices to remain high since (1) the suppliers see the demand for launch as inelastic. and (2) he wants to retain wholesale. pricing power. Being just an OEM is a hard knock life. 25iq.com/2016/06/18/a-d…
3/ If a business doesn't do things that are hard for competitors to replicate, then prices for the product drop to the opportunity cost of capital. This force is like gravity for a business and slowing the speed at which it lowers prices is what maintaining a moat is all about.
1/ If you decide to discuss "capital allocation" it is wise to first understand what it means: "converting inputs, including money, things, ideas, and people, into something more valuable than they would be otherwise." The test net present value based. research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?langua…
2/ "Passing the NPV test means $1 invested in a business is worth more than $1 in the market. This occurs when the present value of the long-term cash flow from an investment exceeds the initial cost."
"Capital allocation" isn't about income or wealth distribution. It's a skill.
3/ "In allocating Berkshire’s capital, we ask three questions: Should we keep the capital or pay it out to shareholders? If pay it out, then you have to decide whether to repurchase shares or issue a dividend.” Warren Buffett
"We still believe there is a future for [statistical factor] value investing; sadly, the future is unlikely to arrive fast enough - for us."
"Russell 1000 Value index is down 8% year-to-date, while Russell 1000 Growth index has gained 30%." reuters.com/article/us-fun…
As for "value as an analytical style" instead of as "a statistical factor" Charlie Munger says: "There are various ways to look for value investments just as there are various places to fish and the first rule of fishing is to fish where the fish are."
Charlie Munger: "It's harder to find easy value investments because the world is so competitive. That accounts for a lot of what you see in Berkshire where we buy securities like Apple we wouldn't have bought in the old days when we purchased more mundane things."
1/ "*A company’s value equals the present value of future cash flows.
*While convenient, earnings provide limited information about future cash flows.
*The ongoing shift to an intangible-based economy renders earnings even less useful." Michael Mauboussin
2/ "Earnings do not consider future capital needs. Many firms require higher levels of inventory and accounts receivable as they grow. These working capital investments are true cash outlays not reflected in earnings, leading to a potential gap between earnings and cash flow." MM
3/ "When a growing company operates with a negative cash conversion cycle, where for every incremental dollar of sales, current liability growth exceeds current asset growth, leading to a positive cash flow contribution." Cash flows can vary depending on a firm's business model.