1/ If you decide to discuss "capital allocation" it is wise to first understand what it means: "converting inputs, including money, things, ideas, and people, into something more valuable than they would be otherwise." The test net present value based. research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?langua…
2/ "Passing the NPV test means $1 invested in a business is worth more than $1 in the market. This occurs when the present value of the long-term cash flow from an investment exceeds the initial cost."

"Capital allocation" isn't about income or wealth distribution. It's a skill.
3/ "In allocating Berkshire’s capital, we ask three questions: Should we keep the capital or pay it out to shareholders? If pay it out, then you have to decide whether to repurchase shares or issue a dividend.” Warren Buffett
4/ "To retain the capital, we have to answer the question: do we create more than $1 of value for every dollar we retain? Then we ask, what is the risk? We then only do the most intelligent thing we can find. The cost of a deal is relative to the cost of the second best deal.”
5/ Buffett believes many people don't have capital allocation skill because they didn't do it enough as they rose to positions where the skill is required.

Not letting Dairy Queen take $1 and invest it at lower return than elsewhere at Berkshire is capital allocation.
6/ Basic research is underfunded by private firms because it is performed with no specific commercial applications in mind. That's why governments/philanthropy must fund it. By definition basic research is unwise capital allocation by the private firm. fgn.unisg.ch/-/media/dateie…
7/ Capital allocation is a skill. Where should each $1 of incremental capital go? Income/wealth distribution is different (an outcome, not a skill). Capital allocated to applied research produces feedback on an allocator's skill level. Measuring ROIC on basic research isn't easy.

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More from @trengriffin

15 Oct
"We still believe there is a future for [statistical factor] value investing; sadly, the future is unlikely to arrive fast enough - for us."

"Russell 1000 Value index is down 8% year-to-date, while Russell 1000 Growth index has gained 30%." reuters.com/article/us-fun…
As for "value as an analytical style" instead of as "a statistical factor" Charlie Munger says: "There are various ways to look for value investments just as there are various places to fish and the first rule of fishing is to fish where the fish are."
Charlie Munger: "It's harder to find easy value investments because the world is so competitive. That accounts for a lot of what you see in Berkshire where we buy securities like Apple we wouldn't have bought in the old days when we purchased more mundane things."
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct
1/ "*A company’s value equals the present value of future cash flows.
*While convenient, earnings provide limited information about future cash flows.
*The ongoing shift to an intangible-based economy renders earnings even less useful." Michael Mauboussin
2/ "Earnings do not consider future capital needs. Many firms require higher levels of inventory and accounts receivable as they grow. These working capital investments are true cash outlays not reflected in earnings, leading to a potential gap between earnings and cash flow." MM
3/ "When a growing company operates with a negative cash conversion cycle, where for every incremental dollar of sales, current liability growth exceeds current asset growth, leading to a positive cash flow contribution." Cash flows can vary depending on a firm's business model.
Read 4 tweets
13 Oct
Get your 5G mmWave groove on in the US theverge.com/circuitbreaker…
A cutout does not "work as an antenna." And this:

"5G works based on low range frequencies, the antenna structure was redesigned to work as expected, and this resulted in a new cutout on the side edge of the iPhone 12."

Isn't even wrong. 9to5mac.com/2020/10/13/iph…
Millimeter wave radio frequencies are in the high band. signal strength at these frequencies (e.g., 28 or 39 GHz) is likely made better by this modification for US iPhone 12. High band frequency means more hertz, but worse propagation. There are lots of tradeoffs in wireless.
Read 4 tweets
8 Oct
1/ 'You simply want to acquire, at a sensible price, a business with excellent economics..." What Buffett is referring to is unit economics (which are part of microeconomics). berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1996.h…

Munger: "Microeconomics is what we do. Macro is what we put up with."
2/ If an investor can (1) determine the value of the individual customers of a business; and (2) estimate how many customers they will acquire and how long they’re going to stay, the investor can create a sold DCF prediction about the value of that business on a bottoms-up basis.
3/ "An investor’s time is better spent trying to gain a knowledge advantage regarding ‘the knowable’: industries, companies and securities. The more micro your focus, the great the likelihood you can learn things others don’t.” Howard Marks.
Read 6 tweets
5 Oct
Churn is a stone cold killer.

"Netflix, often estimated to be less than 10% annually, the company will face much less fundraising pressure. If it tracks closer to last year’s industry average of 35%, Quibi’s problems would grow significantly."
msn.com/en-us/money/ne…
Churn is a stone cold killer. news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…
The higher the cost of acquiring a customer is, the deadlier customer churn can be. CAC and churn are reflexive. They are interdependent parts of a complex adaptive system. google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
Read 5 tweets
4 Oct
Once a mobile operator has built out to serve high value mobile customers, there is often unused capacity. Regardless of the "G" it can sell the unused capacity for fixed home use. "All capacity you do not use at this current time is lost forever." fiercewireless.com/operators/veri…
The unit economics of fixed wireless to homes are better if there's: 1) no equipment subsidy; and, 2) no truck roll for an installation.

"Telecom in wireless is a high fixed-cost, low variable-cost business. Once the equipment [built], it’s pretty cheap to offer services.”
The US Rural Digital Opportunity Fund (RDOF) auction, which may provide up to $16 billion in funding for rural broadband, is scheduled for late October. A FCC ruling may be issued next week clarifying which communications operators can participate in the auction and how.
Read 4 tweets

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