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Will Jordan Profile picture
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24 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Wisconsin is a perfect storm of annoying for predicting partisanship. The vote there is not *that* polarized by education, or age (relatively speaking); there is no party registration; and everyone is white.
I apologize - insensitive way to phrase it.
The broader point here is to “predict” partisanship of a person (an important tool for avoiding issues like non response bias) you need either person’s party registration or *other info highly correlated with partisanship.* Both present a particular challenge in Wisconsin.
Well the thing is the voters *are* very polarized. At least as much as anywhere else. But from a demographic perspective it just seems that people were like, randomly selected to be strongly Democratic and strongly Republican lol (exaggerating a little).
I think Nate alluded to this a bit, but if "voted early in 2020" goes onto the voter file, it might actually vastly improve partisan modeling in Wisconsin....

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More from @williamjordann

Will Jordan Profile picture
23 Oct
Trump’s position opposing a $15 minimum wage was one of the more unpopular things he said last night.
Still a bit crazy to think how this got passed over (in favor of an ambiguous answer on oil). In FL, polls show a $15 minimum wage at 67% support. It’s the sort of “wouldn’t expect of a Republican” thing Trump would support in 2016, more popular with low income across parties.
Have been looking at poll after poll for 4 years showing import of protecting SS/Medicare to voters over almost all else. Trump made a big show of opposing cuts in ‘16! Then proposed cuts. There’s a quiet ad war on issue in key states...But not even a question in debates iirc.
Read 5 tweets
Will Jordan Profile picture
22 Oct
Some very interesting data on how and when people say they will vote in today's @NavigatorSurvey .
In total, 19% of the sample (a registered voter frame) said they had voted already. This came out of the field Monday. Vast majority of this was mail/absentee, a bit of early in-person coming in. Early voters remain disproportionately white, older, and supportive of Biden. Image
Some differences should narrow with time. Age/race gaps diminish somewhat with how people plan to vote (many young/POC voters plan to vote mail, but haven't yet).

Note the white population is most polarized: most likely to have already voted, most likely to plan to vote EDay. Image
Read 5 tweets
Will Jordan Profile picture
22 Oct
someone interviewed 5500 people in oklahoma for some reason...very cool news9.com/story/5f90b311…
yeah uh, this 5500 interview poll has Biden running ...15 points ahead of Clinton in Oklahoma??
they do weight by gender and race...and education. But their target is based on a "database" that is a bit mysterious (perhaps they mean a voter file?) Image
Read 4 tweets
Will Jordan Profile picture
29 May 19
Stunning visualization.

In raw numbers the "Gen X and younger" generations just absolutely leapfrogged over "Boomer and older."

An overall increase of 25.5 million votes from 2014. 86% (21.9m) of the increase came from Gen-X-and-younger.

pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019…
the Millennials have arrived
Some doubt has been cast on the quality of this turnout data, but remains very interesting to me, the parallels to the EU Ref "waking up" younger voters and what we've seen post-Trump.
willjordanborderline.wordpress.com/2017/12/02/the…
Read 6 tweets
Will Jordan Profile picture
13 Apr 19
Crenshaw implies a fellow representative, a Muslim giving a speech about coping with the discrimination faced by Muslims after 9/11, is herself an apologist for terrorists while pushing a message that CAIR is "a terrorist organization." He gets blowback and it's "whoa there,..."
Really the cruelest irony that the point Rep. Omar was making was about empowering Muslims to stand proud in the face of casual discrimination and stereotyping, especially in light of the Trump's rhetoric and the mass murder in New Zealand.
From the same speech - "He (Trump) knows that there are people that he can influence to threaten our lives to diminish our presence.

But what we know, and what Islam teaches us, and what I always say, is that love Trump's hate."
Read 5 tweets
Will Jordan Profile picture
21 Mar 19
The latest Navigator Research poll (national RVs) breaks up the population by partisanship and Fox News viewership and some of it is just jaw dropping. Like not surprising but wow. navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/upl…
I realize that was a bit of an oxymoron.
What's most fascinating to me is differences b/w REPUBLICANS who watch Fox regularly few times a month or more) vs those who don't. Splits 50-50.

For ex "Non-Fox News GOP" are more than 2x as likely to believe in man-made climate change, to take something topical. 28%...vs 12%
Read 11 tweets

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