For those asking if the polls can be wrong and Trump can still win, like in 2016, my response is:
The 2016 polls did NOT miss the Trump surge.
In the last 2 weeks, they showed big Trump momentum in key states.
Look at these RCP charts...
The 2016 polls did NOT miss the Trump surge.
In the last 2 weeks, they showed big Trump momentum in key states.
Look at these RCP charts...
Michigan, final two weeks:
Clinton +10 -> Clinton +3.6
Clinton +10 -> Clinton +3.6
Florida, final two weeks:
Clinton +4 -> Trump +0.4
Clinton +4 -> Trump +0.4
Pennsylvania, final two weeks:
Clinton +5.6 -> Clinton +2.1
Clinton +5.6 -> Clinton +2.1
North Carolina, final two weeks:
Clinton +2.4 -> Trump +0.8
Clinton +2.4 -> Trump +0.8
Most folks (myself included!) shrugged this off as normal "tightening." We couldn't believe undecideds would really have a gut check moment that led them to Trump (or that D turnout would sink in the Rust Belt). But the momentum was in the data, staring at us in the face...
...Does Trump in 2020 have the time, with the 10 days left, for a similar surge?
Putting aside that he's an unpopular incumbent presiding over a spiking pandemic, yes, based on 2016, he has enough time.
But if it's happening, you will see it in the data.
Putting aside that he's an unpopular incumbent presiding over a spiking pandemic, yes, based on 2016, he has enough time.
But if it's happening, you will see it in the data.
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