With almost 2k interviews in the Rust Belt by this morning and still going, we're going to find out how many people are aware of the story.

We didn't ask opinions about them. Simply wanted to know if they've heard about the recent reports.
More than 1/5 (22.7%) of the 605 voters we interviewed last night in Michigan told us they are NOT "familiar with the revelations" in "recent news reports" surrounding Joe Biden.
FTR, the percentage who are familiar was closer to 65% than 80% w/ those who said they were “unsure”. It’s plausible to think they just don’t want to say “No” and that others who chose “Yes” don’t want to seem uninformed.

But in 2016, it was much higher for reports on Clinton.
UPDATE: In interviews conducted on Sunday, 72.2% in Michigan told us they ARE "familiar with the revelations" in "recent news reports" surrounding Joe Biden.

That's up from the mid 60s, though still lags the 90-plus for Clinton in 2016.
nypost.com/2020/10/24/bid…
Reading @nypost article via @peterschweizer and @seamusbruner, I remembered @washingtonpost editorial speculating as to why Joe Biden went so soft on China during that trip in '13.

Now, they know about his meetings with Jonathan Li during that trip, and it's a non-story at WaPo.

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More from @Peoples_Pundit

23 Oct
The Biden campaign has now shifted the goalposts again to claim there's no indication he's received any money.

Yeah, kinda is. In his taxes, there's an LLC in his and Jill's name with millions in unitemized/undisclosed income.

That's always been the con of personal tax returns.
The truth is, this ritual started by Mitt Romney — politicians running for president releasing their taxes — has been a con for decades.

They tell us nothing about whether someone is corrupt. If anything even could, it would be the business filings, not the personal returns.
The ritual of releasing personal tax returns was started by George Romney, which is what I meant to say in the form of "Mitt Romney's father."

But again the important take is that it was always a con. A token gesture by corrupt pols who know it means nothing and exposes nothing.
Read 4 tweets
7 Oct
Is this where you polled?

If so, no wonder. This is not representative, at all. Sorry, but it isn’t and is why you were wrong in Florida back in 2018, as well.

You straight missed large swathes of voters who are very important.
If that’s the geo participation in the NYT Poll, then at least a significant part of Biden’s lead in them is in no small part nothing more than response bias and an artifact of the polling mode.
1. I'd be embarrassed to tweet maps that show such a distribution.

2. Quinnipiac is not a serious poll, hasn't called an election correctly in years, and wrong in Florida for 5 straight cycles, often grossly. So, please stop asking me what I think about that vs. our Trump +1.6.
Read 4 tweets
1 Oct
Miller, Trump Campaign: "We do not want any changes from what has been agreed to before the first debate."

"It didn't turn out the way they wanted. That's why they want changes."
Negotiator for Trump confirms Biden campaign requested a mute button for the second debate, but it did not come from the commission and was denied.

Biden campaign also seeking to reduce open discussion segment to "almost nothing" to "control" the forum.

They want no changes.
The Biden campaign requesting a mute button for the next debate reminds me of when "stress cards" came out for basic trainees NOT at Ft. Benning in the Army and we just wanted them to go home so they didn't get us killed.
Read 4 tweets
1 Oct
Thread on Florida Poll: Here's the mid-September 2018 survey we did on the gubernatorial and senatorial elections.

Notice the undecided vote among indies, and their allocated vote shares.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
That's about as comparable as we can get because we didn't poll the "exact" time period and duration back then as now.

But now look at the same two now in Florida.

Strikingly similar.

Btw, much larger enthusiasm gap for GOP.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Indies aren't at all comfortable sharing their political beliefs with others, including pollsters, which stems from more conservative-leaning indies.

By age group, it's even more striking. Overall, appx. one-third are slightly/very uncomfortable. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Image
Read 4 tweets
30 Sep
Listening to the media, to include Fox News, you might think coronavirus is not only the top issue on voters' minds, but dominantly so.

It's not anymore. It slipped to third, but I cannot help but to think their droning on keeps it alive longer than it organically would've.
Average working Americans aren't allowed to gather like the advantaged in the debate crowd tonight without being criticized by the likes of those in the crowd.
In the montage, the first clip Fix News put up was Bill Hemmer talking about coronavirus, the third place issue the media wants in first place until November.
Read 4 tweets
25 Sep
THREAD: I'd just note the obvious...

1. The wording of the two questions are different. That's not kosher dill.

2. @realDonaldTrump won voters citing “Supreme Sourt appointments” as “the most important factor” in their vote 56% to 41%.

Continued...
THREAD CONTINUED: So, voters allegedly wanted Obama's nominee to get a hearing, allegedly by a larger margin than they oppose Trump's nominee from getting a hearing, yet they nevertheless rejected that and elected Trump.

Something's a bit off, no?

Perhaps this is the issue...
THREAD CONTINUED: For starters, perhaps the issue is the difference in the way the question was worded.

In 2016, the question merely asked if voters thought the Senate should hold hearings and vote. Now, the question is much more empowering to voters and their own importance. Image
Read 6 tweets

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