Thread by @ezralevin

Zeke's asleep so real quick here's why next year is gonna be awesome. I'm a fan of presidential scholar Stephen Skowronek. He's got a "political time" theory about presidents - basically, their personality is less important than their place in time. (*great* polisci to follow...)

Some presidents get to establish multi-decade regimes - Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, FDR, Reagan. The coalitions & political agenda of these presidents define the contours of political debate for decades to come.

Skowronek's book on the subject: goodreads.com/book/show/9046…

Other presidents of the same just party innovate off the current regime.

Truman, JFK, and LBJ were all FDR-acolytes pushing their own brand of FDR liberalism.

Both Bushes were Reaganites pushing safety net cuts, religious judges, deregulation, and big military spending.

Presidents of the opposite party are constrained.

Under FDR's regime, Eisenhower expanded Social Security. Nixon created the EPA and EITC.

Under Reagan's regime, Clinton said "the era of big government is over." Obama's healthcare triumph was modeled on a GOP state plan.

Eventually presidents of the same party oversee the crumbling of regimes.

The discrediting of laissez-faire capitalism under Hoover allowed for the rise of FDR's regime.

Carter rejected FDR liberalism and Dems turned against him, allowing for the rise of the Reagan regime.

In this analysis, the Reagan regime is crumbling under Trump. Tax cuts for the rich as inequality soars. Cuts to basic govt investments so that we can't even contend with a virus.

The Reagan ideology is bankrupt of ideas and can't contend with modern societal problems.

Following this line of argument, Biden could be the post-Trump/post-Reagan "reconstructive" president because of his place in "political time."

Sure every president would like to be reconstructive, but not every president gets the chance. Biden does.

Early in the Democratic presidential primary last year, Skowronek was asked in an interview which Dem primary candidate would make for the most likely reconstructive president. Listening to this recently, the answer surprised me: he said Biden. soundcloud.com/lsepodcasts/is…

Skowronek's reasoning was that regime-creating, reconstructive presidents often come from the establishment wing of their party. @_waleedshahid has made a similar point repeatedly, e.g. here:

https://twitter.com/FeliciaWongRI/status/1318871957186760705?s=20

Now, all those reconstructive presidents had 2 things:
1) Big congressional majorities. You can't build a long-lasting regime unless you can pass legislation.
2) Active pressure on the ground. Presidents and congress don't move on their own - they have to be moved.

All to say - we should be very excited for a Biden presidency. We should do everything possible to get him big congressional majorities. And we should prepare to push our new Dem electeds to pass legislation we want - because it won't happen if we don't.
2020.indivisible.org

You made it to the end, so here's Zeke asleep, dreaming of the next regime no doubt. /end